Post by CC06 on Apr 12, 2022 14:28:13 GMT -5
It's time for the first annual Top 10 Prospects list! I'll get this out earlier on in the season in the future, but still wanted to publish a baseline for future articles even though the regular season is over. First, only players 23 years old and younger were considered, regardless of the number of years they've played in the league to this point. Second, the player must currently be in the league now, meaning no Tim Duncan, Tracy McGrady, Peja Stojakovic, etc.
The list is a balance of "best case scenario" and "worst case scenario". It tends to skew younger, as the younger players (in theory) have higher upside and more paths to being good. Prospects were placed into tiers with other players that were thought to be like prospects -- if you believe a prospect is higher than somebody else in his respective tier, that's fine, but that's splitting hairs; it's not as significant as arguing a player belongs in a different tier.
And lastly, this is just one man's rankings. It's not definitive, and I'm not looking "under the hood" at true potentials or anything like that, just trying to provide content for the league.
With all that setup out of the way, let's get to the #1 prospect in TSFBL:
TIER 1:
1. PF Kevin Garnett (Clippers) - 20
As the first player in TSFBL history to enter the league directly from high school, there was certainly a plethora of pundits around the league who had no clue what to think or expect when Garnett was selected #1 overall in the 1995 Rookie Draft. After leading the Clippers all the way to the TSFBL Finals in just one season, the confusion quickly turned to fear around the league from the 28 other teams and fanbases. If you thought his rookie production was scary, I have really bad news: he’s even better in year two, and is still a ripe 20-year-old with room left to grow.
It was immediately evident as a rookie that Garnett was highly advanced as a defender for someone so young, and he's shown no hints of regression in that category. The biggest improvements in Garnett's sophomore season have come as an interior scorer and as a rebounder. He upped his scoring average by four points per game to 29.1, and set a TSFBL single season record with 14.4 rebounds per game. The cherry on top of it all is his playmaking; he averaged 5.7 assists per game this season, the highest mark among all frontcourt players. The sky is the limit for Garnett, and there was no question that he belongs in a tier all by himself.
TIER 2:
2. PF Jermaine O'Neal (Spurs) - 18
It was a bit of a surprise when Jermaine O'Neal fell all the way to #6 overall in the 1996 Rookie Draft, as the first five teams on the clock all emphasized guard play. With the luxury of having Jason Kidd, who we'll talk about later, already in tow, the Spurs welcomed in the 18-year-old big man with open arms. After posting 30.5 points per game in his rookie campaign, the second highest mark for a rookie in TSFBL history, it's safe to say the South Carolina native wasted no time giving the franchises who passed on him something to think about.
O'Neal and Kidd wasted no time ascending to the top of the list of the league's premier inside/outside duos. Despite his youthful age, Jermaine was one of only two rookies this season -- Ben Wallace of the Atlanta Hawks being the other -- to earn All-League honors. You might ask, "what separates KG from JO as a prospect?" For O'Neal, there is still room for improvement as a defender and a rebounder. It would be unfair to expect him to reach KG's level in those aspects in just two seasons, though he should still be quite improved in both areas by that time.
3. SG Kobe Bryant (Pistons) - 18
As the #1 overall pick in the most highly touted draft class in TSFBL history, it's fair to say that the expectations set on 18-year-old Kobe Bryant were almost impossible for him to meet. The Pistons certainly were ready to shoot the moon after his arrival, trading away three future first round draft picks with the intentions of immediately contending, despite only winning 28 games just a year ago. It's hard to say Kobe struggled in the first two thirds of the season, but his 24.2 points per game did feel a little underwhelming relative to the hype.
Then, something seemed to click for the youngster. Bryant averaged 30.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game in the team's last 24 games, as the Pistons went 19-5 and surged ahead of the other Eastern Conference contenders to win the conference's regular season championship by two games. It's yet another reminder that all the players on this list are moving targets; even the oldest player featured is still "just" 23-years-old. For as high as Kobe's expectations were, if the guy we saw in the last two months is any indication, he will absolutely shatter them.
TIER 3:
4. PG Jason Kidd (Spurs) - 23
As mentioned before, these rankings are mix of "best case" and "worst case". Two point guards who'll come up later, Allen Iverson and Stephon Marbury, are younger than and (arguably) have more room to grow than the 23-year-old Kidd. However, most of that potential is in the scoring department, where Kidd knows his limits and mostly plays within them. It's nearly impossible to argue that either could surpass him as a distributor (Kidd set a TSFBL single season record this year with 11.4 assists per game), as a defender (Kidd earned All-Defensive Second Team honors this season), or, if it matters, as a rebounder (Kidd led all point guards with 6.8 per game this season).
So, while he may not be the fresh new toy on the shelf, Kidd remains as the top point guard prospect. If you asked me to project out the career of all three from this point onward, I'd still expect him to be the best of the three. When Darrell Armstrong spurned the Spurs in favor of the in-state rival Mavericks to kick off the 1995 free agency frenzy, Kidd was left without a teammate capable of averaging double figures, and his team struggled as a result. Some of that blame was unfairly placed on him, but he proved those detractors wrong and flourished this season with an elite-level offensive big man alongside him.
5. SG Ray Allen (Hornets) - 21
Anfernee Hardaway's surprise MVP campaign was the biggest highlight of the Hornets' 1996 season, but it's his new backcourt running mate, Ray Allen, who flashed the most potential in Charlotte. After all, the biggest reason Hardaway's assists jumped from 6.4 a year ago to 10.0 was simply because he finally had another high-level scorer beside him. The two, along with a bolstered frontcourt, led the Hornets from the fringes of the lottery in 1995 to 53 wins in just their first season together. Despite struggling a bit adjusting to the length of the TSFBL three-point line (33.4%), Allen's scoring potential is undeniable. In his rookie campaign, Allen was fifth among all shooting guards in TSFBL with 23.3 points per game.
The key for Allen's progression as a prospect will be developing the secondary components of his game, specifically playmaking and defense. Both were cited as potential weaknesses in the pre-draft process and were reasons why Ray was not given more consideration for the first two picks of the 1996 Rookie Draft. He did average 4.6 assists per game as a rookie, which is a big stride passing-wise, but the defense still leaves a lot to be desired. Despite his flaws, if the jump shot develops like it's projected to, there's no doubt that Allen will be one of the top shooting guards in the league for many years to come.
6. PG Stephon Marbury (Knicks) - 19
The selection of Marbury at #4 was the first major surprise of the 1996 Rookie Draft, but the immediate progression by the point guard out of Georgia Tech immediately validated the selection. Returning home to play for the Knicks, Marbury's immediate impact helped lead a 14-win turnaround, bringing the Knicks back to the playoffs for the first time since 1993. Before I go any further, I'm sure some reading this are asking, "How is Stephon Marbury ahead of Allen Iverson?" Well, I know stats can be misleading, but humor me and look at a blind comparison of the two (per 36 minutes):
Player A (21 years old): 23.3 PPG / 7.6 APG / 4.7 RPG / 2.2 SPG / 4.5 TOPG
Player B (19 years old): 24.8 PPG / 9.1 APG / 5.0 RPG / 1.7 SPG / 5.0 TOPG
Raw stats aren't everything, I get that. I'm sure you could throw Chucky Atkins' and Tony Delk's numbers into this blindly and make a case for them as well, but let's be serious. If I told you that Player B (Marbury) had the best training camp improvement of any player in the league before the season, how could you not take him over Player A (Iverson) without any preconceived notions? A season's worth of data has provided the ability recontextualize the comparison of the two, and one season in, the edge must go to Marbury.
7. PG Allen Iverson (Trail Blazers) - 21
After winning the Rookie of the Year in 1996 and leading a 71-win team in scoring and assists, Iverson's lack of inclusion on this list up until now may puzzle some. Simply put, the turnovers are a real problem. It's not just the fact that he's throwing the ball away nearly five times per game, but it's the fact that he's doing it despite an abundance of talent surrounding him unmatched by the rest of the league. If there's a scheme solution to getting his turnovers down, the Trail Blazers certainly didn't find it in the regular season -- not that they needed to.
The turnovers aren't the only negative with Iverson, either. He shot just 28/113 (24.8%) from behind the arc in his rookie campaign, and also has long term defensive concerns at both guard positions due to his lack of size. There's a lot to like about a guy who was top five among all rookies in points (25.3), assists (8.3), steals (2.4) and field goal percentage (51.6%), but there are major weaknesses to sure up before Iverson can move up a tier in subsequent rankings.
TIER 4:
8. SF Antoine Walker (SuperSonics) - 20
With so many top prospects available in 1996, it was easy for some names to slip through the cracks. You just wouldn't expect it to happen to a prospect who led Kentucky to a National Championship just a few months before the draft, but that was the case for Antoine Walker, who fell all the way to #11 before hearing his name called. After contributing 24.1 points, 7.7 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game at just 20-years-old for the 60-22 Seattle SuperSonics, you can imagine that some of the GM's in the top ten would like a do-over.
Antoine is incredibly well-rounded as a prospect. He's been better defensively than the other rookies who we've covered to this point, and was top three on the Sonics in rebounds, steals, and assists. His "jack of all trades" type of game is a blessing in terms of his floor as a prospect, but also a curse in terms of ceiling. What's the one skill he's going to be elite at? How much room does he have to grow from here? It's weird to be asking that of someone who's only 20, but such questions kept him from Tier 3.
9. PG Steve Nash (Suns) - 22
Nash was a very polarizing prospect in the 1996 Rookie Draft process, and ended up being the last point guard selected among he, Iverson and, more surprisingly, Marbury. He by far had the best outside game and playmaking chops out of the group, but it was hard to see how he'd be able to hold up defensively against TSFBL-level guards. With a full season in the books for all three, Nash has found himself on the periphery of the discussions of best point guard in the class, despite it being a three-horse race at the start. I gave you the head-to-head comparison per 36 minutes between Marbury and Iverson, so let's bring Nash's numbers into the equation:
Iverson: 23.3 PPG / 7.6 APG / 4.7 RPG / 2.2 SPG / 4.5 TOPG
Marbury: 24.8 PPG / 9.1 APG / 5.0 RPG / 1.7 SPG / 5.0 TOPG
Nash: 18.5 PPG / 10.0 APG / 4.5 RPG / 1.7 SPG / 4.9 TOPG
It's also worth noting that Nash, 22, is the oldest of the three. So, what avenues does Nash have to get into the same tier as Iverson and Marbury? Most obviously, the defense needs to take a step forward. Second, the jump shot that was so highly touted coming out of Santa Clara must come around. He's not the driver that Iverson and Marbury are. Shooting 87/277 (31.4%) from three won't be good enough to close that gap. Finally, reducing his turnover numbers would be a big differentiator between he and the other two, who also struggle in that regard.
TIER 5:
10. PF Chris Webber (Suns) - 23
Falling to #5 in the 1993 Rookie Draft was not the start Webber envisioned for his career, but the first four seasons have arguably been even more odd. He led them to the Pacific Division crown in the first two but had a very disappointing 1995 season as the Suns plummeted all the way to the worst record in TSFBL. His scoring average dropped 4.1 points, and there were lingering doubts about his future in the desert. Insert Steve Nash, a playmaking prospect who's #1 goal is to feed Webber, and his scoring output has returned to normal. Unfortunately, the wins have not followed, and the questions of the future are as loud as ever heading into an off-season where Webber will be on the market as a restricted free agent.
Just based on the raw numbers, some might've expected Webber to slot somewhere higher on this list. Simply put, he's got less time to correct the flaws that still exist in his game after four seasons. He's not dependable as a defender, despite earning All-Defensive Second Team honors this season. We also have yet to see how his scoring and rebounding would look on a team with higher-level talent around him. Unfortunately, these are questions that Webber won't have a chance to answer before the Suns are forced to decide if they want to commit to him long term, likely on a maximum contract.
Honorable Mentions: (also in Tier 5 but outside of the Top 10)
Names to Watch: (have to be 22 or younger)
The list is a balance of "best case scenario" and "worst case scenario". It tends to skew younger, as the younger players (in theory) have higher upside and more paths to being good. Prospects were placed into tiers with other players that were thought to be like prospects -- if you believe a prospect is higher than somebody else in his respective tier, that's fine, but that's splitting hairs; it's not as significant as arguing a player belongs in a different tier.
And lastly, this is just one man's rankings. It's not definitive, and I'm not looking "under the hood" at true potentials or anything like that, just trying to provide content for the league.
With all that setup out of the way, let's get to the #1 prospect in TSFBL:
TIER 1:
1. PF Kevin Garnett (Clippers) - 20
As the first player in TSFBL history to enter the league directly from high school, there was certainly a plethora of pundits around the league who had no clue what to think or expect when Garnett was selected #1 overall in the 1995 Rookie Draft. After leading the Clippers all the way to the TSFBL Finals in just one season, the confusion quickly turned to fear around the league from the 28 other teams and fanbases. If you thought his rookie production was scary, I have really bad news: he’s even better in year two, and is still a ripe 20-year-old with room left to grow.
It was immediately evident as a rookie that Garnett was highly advanced as a defender for someone so young, and he's shown no hints of regression in that category. The biggest improvements in Garnett's sophomore season have come as an interior scorer and as a rebounder. He upped his scoring average by four points per game to 29.1, and set a TSFBL single season record with 14.4 rebounds per game. The cherry on top of it all is his playmaking; he averaged 5.7 assists per game this season, the highest mark among all frontcourt players. The sky is the limit for Garnett, and there was no question that he belongs in a tier all by himself.
TIER 2:
2. PF Jermaine O'Neal (Spurs) - 18
It was a bit of a surprise when Jermaine O'Neal fell all the way to #6 overall in the 1996 Rookie Draft, as the first five teams on the clock all emphasized guard play. With the luxury of having Jason Kidd, who we'll talk about later, already in tow, the Spurs welcomed in the 18-year-old big man with open arms. After posting 30.5 points per game in his rookie campaign, the second highest mark for a rookie in TSFBL history, it's safe to say the South Carolina native wasted no time giving the franchises who passed on him something to think about.
O'Neal and Kidd wasted no time ascending to the top of the list of the league's premier inside/outside duos. Despite his youthful age, Jermaine was one of only two rookies this season -- Ben Wallace of the Atlanta Hawks being the other -- to earn All-League honors. You might ask, "what separates KG from JO as a prospect?" For O'Neal, there is still room for improvement as a defender and a rebounder. It would be unfair to expect him to reach KG's level in those aspects in just two seasons, though he should still be quite improved in both areas by that time.
3. SG Kobe Bryant (Pistons) - 18
As the #1 overall pick in the most highly touted draft class in TSFBL history, it's fair to say that the expectations set on 18-year-old Kobe Bryant were almost impossible for him to meet. The Pistons certainly were ready to shoot the moon after his arrival, trading away three future first round draft picks with the intentions of immediately contending, despite only winning 28 games just a year ago. It's hard to say Kobe struggled in the first two thirds of the season, but his 24.2 points per game did feel a little underwhelming relative to the hype.
Then, something seemed to click for the youngster. Bryant averaged 30.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game in the team's last 24 games, as the Pistons went 19-5 and surged ahead of the other Eastern Conference contenders to win the conference's regular season championship by two games. It's yet another reminder that all the players on this list are moving targets; even the oldest player featured is still "just" 23-years-old. For as high as Kobe's expectations were, if the guy we saw in the last two months is any indication, he will absolutely shatter them.
TIER 3:
4. PG Jason Kidd (Spurs) - 23
As mentioned before, these rankings are mix of "best case" and "worst case". Two point guards who'll come up later, Allen Iverson and Stephon Marbury, are younger than and (arguably) have more room to grow than the 23-year-old Kidd. However, most of that potential is in the scoring department, where Kidd knows his limits and mostly plays within them. It's nearly impossible to argue that either could surpass him as a distributor (Kidd set a TSFBL single season record this year with 11.4 assists per game), as a defender (Kidd earned All-Defensive Second Team honors this season), or, if it matters, as a rebounder (Kidd led all point guards with 6.8 per game this season).
So, while he may not be the fresh new toy on the shelf, Kidd remains as the top point guard prospect. If you asked me to project out the career of all three from this point onward, I'd still expect him to be the best of the three. When Darrell Armstrong spurned the Spurs in favor of the in-state rival Mavericks to kick off the 1995 free agency frenzy, Kidd was left without a teammate capable of averaging double figures, and his team struggled as a result. Some of that blame was unfairly placed on him, but he proved those detractors wrong and flourished this season with an elite-level offensive big man alongside him.
5. SG Ray Allen (Hornets) - 21
Anfernee Hardaway's surprise MVP campaign was the biggest highlight of the Hornets' 1996 season, but it's his new backcourt running mate, Ray Allen, who flashed the most potential in Charlotte. After all, the biggest reason Hardaway's assists jumped from 6.4 a year ago to 10.0 was simply because he finally had another high-level scorer beside him. The two, along with a bolstered frontcourt, led the Hornets from the fringes of the lottery in 1995 to 53 wins in just their first season together. Despite struggling a bit adjusting to the length of the TSFBL three-point line (33.4%), Allen's scoring potential is undeniable. In his rookie campaign, Allen was fifth among all shooting guards in TSFBL with 23.3 points per game.
The key for Allen's progression as a prospect will be developing the secondary components of his game, specifically playmaking and defense. Both were cited as potential weaknesses in the pre-draft process and were reasons why Ray was not given more consideration for the first two picks of the 1996 Rookie Draft. He did average 4.6 assists per game as a rookie, which is a big stride passing-wise, but the defense still leaves a lot to be desired. Despite his flaws, if the jump shot develops like it's projected to, there's no doubt that Allen will be one of the top shooting guards in the league for many years to come.
6. PG Stephon Marbury (Knicks) - 19
The selection of Marbury at #4 was the first major surprise of the 1996 Rookie Draft, but the immediate progression by the point guard out of Georgia Tech immediately validated the selection. Returning home to play for the Knicks, Marbury's immediate impact helped lead a 14-win turnaround, bringing the Knicks back to the playoffs for the first time since 1993. Before I go any further, I'm sure some reading this are asking, "How is Stephon Marbury ahead of Allen Iverson?" Well, I know stats can be misleading, but humor me and look at a blind comparison of the two (per 36 minutes):
Player A (21 years old): 23.3 PPG / 7.6 APG / 4.7 RPG / 2.2 SPG / 4.5 TOPG
Player B (19 years old): 24.8 PPG / 9.1 APG / 5.0 RPG / 1.7 SPG / 5.0 TOPG
Raw stats aren't everything, I get that. I'm sure you could throw Chucky Atkins' and Tony Delk's numbers into this blindly and make a case for them as well, but let's be serious. If I told you that Player B (Marbury) had the best training camp improvement of any player in the league before the season, how could you not take him over Player A (Iverson) without any preconceived notions? A season's worth of data has provided the ability recontextualize the comparison of the two, and one season in, the edge must go to Marbury.
7. PG Allen Iverson (Trail Blazers) - 21
After winning the Rookie of the Year in 1996 and leading a 71-win team in scoring and assists, Iverson's lack of inclusion on this list up until now may puzzle some. Simply put, the turnovers are a real problem. It's not just the fact that he's throwing the ball away nearly five times per game, but it's the fact that he's doing it despite an abundance of talent surrounding him unmatched by the rest of the league. If there's a scheme solution to getting his turnovers down, the Trail Blazers certainly didn't find it in the regular season -- not that they needed to.
The turnovers aren't the only negative with Iverson, either. He shot just 28/113 (24.8%) from behind the arc in his rookie campaign, and also has long term defensive concerns at both guard positions due to his lack of size. There's a lot to like about a guy who was top five among all rookies in points (25.3), assists (8.3), steals (2.4) and field goal percentage (51.6%), but there are major weaknesses to sure up before Iverson can move up a tier in subsequent rankings.
TIER 4:
8. SF Antoine Walker (SuperSonics) - 20
With so many top prospects available in 1996, it was easy for some names to slip through the cracks. You just wouldn't expect it to happen to a prospect who led Kentucky to a National Championship just a few months before the draft, but that was the case for Antoine Walker, who fell all the way to #11 before hearing his name called. After contributing 24.1 points, 7.7 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game at just 20-years-old for the 60-22 Seattle SuperSonics, you can imagine that some of the GM's in the top ten would like a do-over.
Antoine is incredibly well-rounded as a prospect. He's been better defensively than the other rookies who we've covered to this point, and was top three on the Sonics in rebounds, steals, and assists. His "jack of all trades" type of game is a blessing in terms of his floor as a prospect, but also a curse in terms of ceiling. What's the one skill he's going to be elite at? How much room does he have to grow from here? It's weird to be asking that of someone who's only 20, but such questions kept him from Tier 3.
9. PG Steve Nash (Suns) - 22
Nash was a very polarizing prospect in the 1996 Rookie Draft process, and ended up being the last point guard selected among he, Iverson and, more surprisingly, Marbury. He by far had the best outside game and playmaking chops out of the group, but it was hard to see how he'd be able to hold up defensively against TSFBL-level guards. With a full season in the books for all three, Nash has found himself on the periphery of the discussions of best point guard in the class, despite it being a three-horse race at the start. I gave you the head-to-head comparison per 36 minutes between Marbury and Iverson, so let's bring Nash's numbers into the equation:
Iverson: 23.3 PPG / 7.6 APG / 4.7 RPG / 2.2 SPG / 4.5 TOPG
Marbury: 24.8 PPG / 9.1 APG / 5.0 RPG / 1.7 SPG / 5.0 TOPG
Nash: 18.5 PPG / 10.0 APG / 4.5 RPG / 1.7 SPG / 4.9 TOPG
It's also worth noting that Nash, 22, is the oldest of the three. So, what avenues does Nash have to get into the same tier as Iverson and Marbury? Most obviously, the defense needs to take a step forward. Second, the jump shot that was so highly touted coming out of Santa Clara must come around. He's not the driver that Iverson and Marbury are. Shooting 87/277 (31.4%) from three won't be good enough to close that gap. Finally, reducing his turnover numbers would be a big differentiator between he and the other two, who also struggle in that regard.
TIER 5:
10. PF Chris Webber (Suns) - 23
Falling to #5 in the 1993 Rookie Draft was not the start Webber envisioned for his career, but the first four seasons have arguably been even more odd. He led them to the Pacific Division crown in the first two but had a very disappointing 1995 season as the Suns plummeted all the way to the worst record in TSFBL. His scoring average dropped 4.1 points, and there were lingering doubts about his future in the desert. Insert Steve Nash, a playmaking prospect who's #1 goal is to feed Webber, and his scoring output has returned to normal. Unfortunately, the wins have not followed, and the questions of the future are as loud as ever heading into an off-season where Webber will be on the market as a restricted free agent.
Just based on the raw numbers, some might've expected Webber to slot somewhere higher on this list. Simply put, he's got less time to correct the flaws that still exist in his game after four seasons. He's not dependable as a defender, despite earning All-Defensive Second Team honors this season. We also have yet to see how his scoring and rebounding would look on a team with higher-level talent around him. Unfortunately, these are questions that Webber won't have a chance to answer before the Suns are forced to decide if they want to commit to him long term, likely on a maximum contract.
Honorable Mentions: (also in Tier 5 but outside of the Top 10)
Names to Watch: (have to be 22 or younger)
