Post by CC06 on May 18, 2022 18:58:32 GMT -5
We're back again for the second annual Top 10 Prospects list! As you may remember, only players 23 years old and younger were considered, regardless of the number of years they've played in the league to this point. Second, the player must currently be in the league now, meaning no Dirk Nowitzki, Vince Carter, Peja Stojakovic, etc.
The list is a balance of "best case scenario" and "worst case scenario". It tends to skew younger, as the younger players (in theory) have higher upside and more paths to being good. Prospects were placed into tiers with other players that were thought to be like prospects -- if you believe a prospect is higher than somebody else in his respective tier, that's fine, but that's splitting hairs; it's not as significant as arguing a player belongs in a different tier.
And lastly, this is just one man's rankings. It's not definitive, and I'm not looking "under the hood" at true potentials or anything like that, just trying to provide content for the league.
New this year is a development score for those prospects that were in the league last year. Consider a 5 an average score -- it means that everything went as expected and the player is still on a similar path to what we thought last year.
With all that setup out of the way, let's get to the #1 prospect in TSFBL:
TIER 1:
1. PF Kevin Garnett (Clippers) - 21 (--)
It should be no surprise that, after improving yet again in the off-season, Kevin Garnett checks in at #1 on this list for the second season in a row. He’s been an absolute beast since his first time stepping on a TSFBL court, and his All-League level defense has taken yet another step forward just as he’s finally able to legally buy a beer. The conversation around Garnett needs to pivot from “best prospect in the league” to “best player in the league”.
With all the positives, there is one small pimple popping up for Garnett: he’s been turning the ball over at an alarming rate so far this season – almost 5 per game. Is this solely due to the lack of other creators on the Clippers, who get almost nothing out of the point guard position on a nightly basis, or is it a flaw in Garnett’s game that will plague him moving forward? Either way, the Clippers would be well served to get this guy offensive help as quickly as possible, instead of sauntering in the middle of the pack like they have the past two seasons.
Development Score: 7
2. PF Tim Duncan (Mavericks) - 21 (NEW)
The crown jewel of this year’s draft class, Tim Duncan entered TSFBL as fully formed as any prospect we’ve seen so far. Having played four years at Wake Forest before the age of 21, it’s easy to see how Duncan’s game is already so polished; he’s as good as any interior scorer TSFBL has not named Shaquille O’Neal. He’s unfortunately likely to miss the remainder of his rookie season with a broken skull, but Duncan displayed more than enough to establish himself as a Tier 1 prospect.
So what separates Garnett, who’s the same age as the rookie despite already having two TSFBL seasons under his belt, from Duncan? Despite being two years older, Duncan as a rookie still is behind the development curve of Garnett as an outside shooter, playmaker, and defender. His interior game is more polished, and he’ll have plenty of time to improve in the other areas as his career goes on. It’s hard to believe these two could still have 15 years of head-to-head battles in store over the course of their TSFBL careers.
Development Score: N/A
TIER 2:
3. SF Antoine Walker (SuperSonics) - 21 (+5)
Do you remember last year’s article, where we talked about how some GM’s picking ahead of Seattle in the 1996 Rookie Draft wishing they had a do-over? Since then, Antoine Walker has developed into a near-30 points per game scorer on around 50% from the field and a shade under 40% from three. How do you think those GM’s feel now, and just how many of the 10 who passed him over would be willing to trade the guy they selected for him? There’s a serious argument that all ten of them may raise their hand, and that’s what makes the draft so fun and unpredictable.
Last year, we referred to Walker as a “jack of all trades” prospect who didn’t have an elite skill. Since then, he’s developed into the only player in the league with a grade of B or better in inside, outside, and defense. It’s time to stop looking at Walker, who’s still only 21 years old, as a prospect who projects to be good at everything but great at nothing. He has a legitimate chance to wind up as a player who’s great at everything. How’s that for a jack of all trades?
Development Score: 10
TIER 3:
4. PF Jermaine O'Neal (Spurs) - 19 (-2)
After a stellar rookie season where he finished second in the league in scoring, many saw Jermaine as the league’s next version of Kevin Garnett – a prospect right out of high school who could immediately stake a claim to being the best big man in the league. Whether it’s a bit of a sophomore slump or it’s just another power forward, Tim Duncan, entering the league and stealing some of his shine, it’s safe to say that Jermaine would be on the outside listening in on that conversation now.
That’s not to say he doesn’t have it in him, though. He’s still just 19 years old, and he’s once again leading the Spurs to a winning record. His scoring dip likely can be attributed to sharing more of the wealth this season, as his efficiency has hardly waned. He’s also improved as an interior defender, but he’s still far from the level that Garnett was at the same age or Duncan is now (albeit two years older). There’s still a long way to go for young Jermaine, and his development will likely be tracked in these installments for years to come.
Development Score: 5
5. SF Stephen Jackson (Bulls) - 19 (NEW)
Let’s get weird. The Bulls’ selection of Stephen Jackson over Chauncey Billups at #3 surprised many around the league, but drafting for positional fit may have, weirdly enough, landed Chicago the best prospect on the board, too. When you look at the Bulls’ roster, he’s not even one of the first names to stand out between Isaiah Rider, Terrell Brandon, and the recently added Larry Johnson. But read a few names further, and perhaps the best wing prospect in the league is hiding in plain sight.
Did that last sentence shock you? I’m sure you’re thinking, “what about Kobe Bryant, Ray Allen, or Tracy McGrady?” Pre-draft, putting Jackson in that discussion at all, let alone at the top of the pack, would’ve been laughable. But after his improvements leading up to his rookie season, he’s arguably the best shooter, ball handler, and defender of the four. Oh, and did I mention he’s only 19 years old? If the community college product being this high on the list is jarring to you, you’d better get used to it quickly.
Development Score: N/A
6. SG Kobe Bryant (Pistons) - 19 (-3)
What on earth is in the water in Detroit? After choking a 3-0 series lead to the Hornets in last year’s playoffs, the hangover effect appears very real for a team that is seemingly underperforming at every position. The team is averaging around 8 less points per game than they did on their way to the #1 seed last season. The disappointment has not eluded the 19-year-old Bryant, who’s seen his scoring average drop by almost two full points despite an uptick in minutes per game.
It's not all bad news for Bryant, however. He’s impressed many with his improvement as a distributor, and he’s still growing as a defender – an area where he has a lot of potential. He got off to a horrendous shooting start this season, but has shot around 38% from three since the first month. And as was already mentioned, he’s still only a teenager. He may not be the same high school to NBA success story that Kevin Garnett has been to this point, but there are a lot of chapters left to go before the book can be closed.
Development Score: 4
7. SG Ray Allen (Hornets) - 22 (-2)
Last year, we wrote about how, despite Anfernee Hardaway’s MVP campaign, it was Ray Allen who boasted the most potential in the Hornets’ backcourt. It didn’t take much longer than that for Allen to assert himself in Charlotte, and he now is every bit as important to their chances of winning the championship as Penny. With Doug Christie now also wearing the teal and white, there’s no doubt the best backcourt in the league resides in the Queen City.
The biggest improvement for Allen this season has come on the defensive end, where he’s gone from a wide-eyed rookie to someone competent of guarding the opposing team’s #1 option in just one season’s time. His shooting is also much improved – he’s increased his three point percentage from 33.4% last season to around 40% in his sophomore campaign while also increasing his volume. Still just 22 years old, Allen still looks to have plenty of room to grow across the board.
Development Score: 6
TIER 4:
8. SG Tracy McGrady (Warriors) - 18 (NEW)
While Duncan was considered the prize of the 1997 Draft, the Warriors were more than happy to settle for Tracy McGrady at #2, a prospect coming straight out of high school who drew comparisons to Kobe Bryant’s from the draft a season prior. But these youngsters come into the league with so much room to grow, and in his rookie campaign, the 18-year-old McGrady has demonstrated that the path to superstardom isn’t always linear for these "can’t miss" draftees.
Many have been disappointed by the lack of assertiveness from McGrady. He’s only attempting around one three per game, and the ones he is taking aren’t falling at a particularly impressive clip. He’s certainly not shown the scoring chops of the top rookies from the 1996 class, but he has been showing nice flashes as a playmaker for a team that lacks a great point guard. McGrady has been a big reason why the Warriors have been one of the league’s most improved teams, and he’ll have plenty of chances to develop over the coming years.
Development Score: N/A
9. PG Stephon Marbury (Knicks) - 20 (-3)
If this list was just based on the first two weeks of the season, there would’ve been an argument for Marbury being in Tier 1. He averaged 33.3 points, 9.1 assists and 6.0 rebounds in the first seven contests of the season and looked to have taken the leap into a potential MVP candidate before anybody else in the 1996 class. Unfortunately, his numbers have regressed to a more reasonable stat line since, but Marbury is still very good and one to watch out for.
The biggest improvement for Marbury has simply been cutting down on his 4.7 turnovers per game from his rookie campaign. He’s also almost surpassed his number of threes made already despite playing in 16 fewer games to this point. His defense still leaves a lot to be desired, but he is at least averaging more steals per game than a year ago. Last year’s rankings shocked many by listing Marbury ahead of Allen Iverson, but the 1997 seasons from both have shown us nothing that forces walking the controversial opinion back.
Development Score: 6
10. PG Chauncey Billups (Hawks) - 21 (NEW)
After getting hit with the injury bug to start his rookie campaign, Billups has been given full reign of the toiling Atlanta Hawks’ offense. The results have been a bit of a mixed bag, but there’s no doubt the experience will pay dividends for both parties down the line. The Colorado product is the exact point guard that the Hawks were looking for, and they’ll have yet another chance to land a top young prospect in the coming off-season.
So how does Billups stack up alongside the league’s other young point guards? He’s a bit of an orange in a comparison of apples – he’s not the playmaker of Marbury and Nash’s ilk nor is he the rim scorer of Iverson’s. He did, however, come into the league far more ready to defend at a quality level than either of the three did a season prior and, despite only knocking down 44 of his first 129 attempts so far this year, is the best shooting prospect of the group right now.
Development Score: N/A
Honorable Mention: (also in Tier 4 but outside of the top 10)
Names to Watch: (have to be 22 or younger)
Graduates:
The list is a balance of "best case scenario" and "worst case scenario". It tends to skew younger, as the younger players (in theory) have higher upside and more paths to being good. Prospects were placed into tiers with other players that were thought to be like prospects -- if you believe a prospect is higher than somebody else in his respective tier, that's fine, but that's splitting hairs; it's not as significant as arguing a player belongs in a different tier.
And lastly, this is just one man's rankings. It's not definitive, and I'm not looking "under the hood" at true potentials or anything like that, just trying to provide content for the league.
New this year is a development score for those prospects that were in the league last year. Consider a 5 an average score -- it means that everything went as expected and the player is still on a similar path to what we thought last year.
With all that setup out of the way, let's get to the #1 prospect in TSFBL:
TIER 1:
1. PF Kevin Garnett (Clippers) - 21 (--)
It should be no surprise that, after improving yet again in the off-season, Kevin Garnett checks in at #1 on this list for the second season in a row. He’s been an absolute beast since his first time stepping on a TSFBL court, and his All-League level defense has taken yet another step forward just as he’s finally able to legally buy a beer. The conversation around Garnett needs to pivot from “best prospect in the league” to “best player in the league”.
With all the positives, there is one small pimple popping up for Garnett: he’s been turning the ball over at an alarming rate so far this season – almost 5 per game. Is this solely due to the lack of other creators on the Clippers, who get almost nothing out of the point guard position on a nightly basis, or is it a flaw in Garnett’s game that will plague him moving forward? Either way, the Clippers would be well served to get this guy offensive help as quickly as possible, instead of sauntering in the middle of the pack like they have the past two seasons.
Development Score: 7
2. PF Tim Duncan (Mavericks) - 21 (NEW)
The crown jewel of this year’s draft class, Tim Duncan entered TSFBL as fully formed as any prospect we’ve seen so far. Having played four years at Wake Forest before the age of 21, it’s easy to see how Duncan’s game is already so polished; he’s as good as any interior scorer TSFBL has not named Shaquille O’Neal. He’s unfortunately likely to miss the remainder of his rookie season with a broken skull, but Duncan displayed more than enough to establish himself as a Tier 1 prospect.
So what separates Garnett, who’s the same age as the rookie despite already having two TSFBL seasons under his belt, from Duncan? Despite being two years older, Duncan as a rookie still is behind the development curve of Garnett as an outside shooter, playmaker, and defender. His interior game is more polished, and he’ll have plenty of time to improve in the other areas as his career goes on. It’s hard to believe these two could still have 15 years of head-to-head battles in store over the course of their TSFBL careers.
Development Score: N/A
TIER 2:
3. SF Antoine Walker (SuperSonics) - 21 (+5)
Do you remember last year’s article, where we talked about how some GM’s picking ahead of Seattle in the 1996 Rookie Draft wishing they had a do-over? Since then, Antoine Walker has developed into a near-30 points per game scorer on around 50% from the field and a shade under 40% from three. How do you think those GM’s feel now, and just how many of the 10 who passed him over would be willing to trade the guy they selected for him? There’s a serious argument that all ten of them may raise their hand, and that’s what makes the draft so fun and unpredictable.
Last year, we referred to Walker as a “jack of all trades” prospect who didn’t have an elite skill. Since then, he’s developed into the only player in the league with a grade of B or better in inside, outside, and defense. It’s time to stop looking at Walker, who’s still only 21 years old, as a prospect who projects to be good at everything but great at nothing. He has a legitimate chance to wind up as a player who’s great at everything. How’s that for a jack of all trades?
Development Score: 10
TIER 3:
4. PF Jermaine O'Neal (Spurs) - 19 (-2)
After a stellar rookie season where he finished second in the league in scoring, many saw Jermaine as the league’s next version of Kevin Garnett – a prospect right out of high school who could immediately stake a claim to being the best big man in the league. Whether it’s a bit of a sophomore slump or it’s just another power forward, Tim Duncan, entering the league and stealing some of his shine, it’s safe to say that Jermaine would be on the outside listening in on that conversation now.
That’s not to say he doesn’t have it in him, though. He’s still just 19 years old, and he’s once again leading the Spurs to a winning record. His scoring dip likely can be attributed to sharing more of the wealth this season, as his efficiency has hardly waned. He’s also improved as an interior defender, but he’s still far from the level that Garnett was at the same age or Duncan is now (albeit two years older). There’s still a long way to go for young Jermaine, and his development will likely be tracked in these installments for years to come.
Development Score: 5
5. SF Stephen Jackson (Bulls) - 19 (NEW)
Let’s get weird. The Bulls’ selection of Stephen Jackson over Chauncey Billups at #3 surprised many around the league, but drafting for positional fit may have, weirdly enough, landed Chicago the best prospect on the board, too. When you look at the Bulls’ roster, he’s not even one of the first names to stand out between Isaiah Rider, Terrell Brandon, and the recently added Larry Johnson. But read a few names further, and perhaps the best wing prospect in the league is hiding in plain sight.
Did that last sentence shock you? I’m sure you’re thinking, “what about Kobe Bryant, Ray Allen, or Tracy McGrady?” Pre-draft, putting Jackson in that discussion at all, let alone at the top of the pack, would’ve been laughable. But after his improvements leading up to his rookie season, he’s arguably the best shooter, ball handler, and defender of the four. Oh, and did I mention he’s only 19 years old? If the community college product being this high on the list is jarring to you, you’d better get used to it quickly.
Development Score: N/A
6. SG Kobe Bryant (Pistons) - 19 (-3)
What on earth is in the water in Detroit? After choking a 3-0 series lead to the Hornets in last year’s playoffs, the hangover effect appears very real for a team that is seemingly underperforming at every position. The team is averaging around 8 less points per game than they did on their way to the #1 seed last season. The disappointment has not eluded the 19-year-old Bryant, who’s seen his scoring average drop by almost two full points despite an uptick in minutes per game.
It's not all bad news for Bryant, however. He’s impressed many with his improvement as a distributor, and he’s still growing as a defender – an area where he has a lot of potential. He got off to a horrendous shooting start this season, but has shot around 38% from three since the first month. And as was already mentioned, he’s still only a teenager. He may not be the same high school to NBA success story that Kevin Garnett has been to this point, but there are a lot of chapters left to go before the book can be closed.
Development Score: 4
7. SG Ray Allen (Hornets) - 22 (-2)
Last year, we wrote about how, despite Anfernee Hardaway’s MVP campaign, it was Ray Allen who boasted the most potential in the Hornets’ backcourt. It didn’t take much longer than that for Allen to assert himself in Charlotte, and he now is every bit as important to their chances of winning the championship as Penny. With Doug Christie now also wearing the teal and white, there’s no doubt the best backcourt in the league resides in the Queen City.
The biggest improvement for Allen this season has come on the defensive end, where he’s gone from a wide-eyed rookie to someone competent of guarding the opposing team’s #1 option in just one season’s time. His shooting is also much improved – he’s increased his three point percentage from 33.4% last season to around 40% in his sophomore campaign while also increasing his volume. Still just 22 years old, Allen still looks to have plenty of room to grow across the board.
Development Score: 6
TIER 4:
8. SG Tracy McGrady (Warriors) - 18 (NEW)
While Duncan was considered the prize of the 1997 Draft, the Warriors were more than happy to settle for Tracy McGrady at #2, a prospect coming straight out of high school who drew comparisons to Kobe Bryant’s from the draft a season prior. But these youngsters come into the league with so much room to grow, and in his rookie campaign, the 18-year-old McGrady has demonstrated that the path to superstardom isn’t always linear for these "can’t miss" draftees.
Many have been disappointed by the lack of assertiveness from McGrady. He’s only attempting around one three per game, and the ones he is taking aren’t falling at a particularly impressive clip. He’s certainly not shown the scoring chops of the top rookies from the 1996 class, but he has been showing nice flashes as a playmaker for a team that lacks a great point guard. McGrady has been a big reason why the Warriors have been one of the league’s most improved teams, and he’ll have plenty of chances to develop over the coming years.
Development Score: N/A
9. PG Stephon Marbury (Knicks) - 20 (-3)
If this list was just based on the first two weeks of the season, there would’ve been an argument for Marbury being in Tier 1. He averaged 33.3 points, 9.1 assists and 6.0 rebounds in the first seven contests of the season and looked to have taken the leap into a potential MVP candidate before anybody else in the 1996 class. Unfortunately, his numbers have regressed to a more reasonable stat line since, but Marbury is still very good and one to watch out for.
The biggest improvement for Marbury has simply been cutting down on his 4.7 turnovers per game from his rookie campaign. He’s also almost surpassed his number of threes made already despite playing in 16 fewer games to this point. His defense still leaves a lot to be desired, but he is at least averaging more steals per game than a year ago. Last year’s rankings shocked many by listing Marbury ahead of Allen Iverson, but the 1997 seasons from both have shown us nothing that forces walking the controversial opinion back.
Development Score: 6
10. PG Chauncey Billups (Hawks) - 21 (NEW)
After getting hit with the injury bug to start his rookie campaign, Billups has been given full reign of the toiling Atlanta Hawks’ offense. The results have been a bit of a mixed bag, but there’s no doubt the experience will pay dividends for both parties down the line. The Colorado product is the exact point guard that the Hawks were looking for, and they’ll have yet another chance to land a top young prospect in the coming off-season.
So how does Billups stack up alongside the league’s other young point guards? He’s a bit of an orange in a comparison of apples – he’s not the playmaker of Marbury and Nash’s ilk nor is he the rim scorer of Iverson’s. He did, however, come into the league far more ready to defend at a quality level than either of the three did a season prior and, despite only knocking down 44 of his first 129 attempts so far this year, is the best shooting prospect of the group right now.
Development Score: N/A
Honorable Mention: (also in Tier 4 but outside of the top 10)
Names to Watch: (have to be 22 or younger)
Graduates:
