Post by CC06 on Jul 17, 2022 14:43:31 GMT -5
We're back again for the third annual Top 10 Prospects list! As you may remember, only players 23 years old and younger were considered, regardless of the number of years they've played in the league to this point. Second, the player must currently be in the league now.
The list is a balance of "best case scenario" and "worst case scenario". It tends to skew younger, as the younger players (in theory) have higher upside and more paths to being good. Prospects were placed into tiers with other players that were thought to be like prospects -- if you believe a prospect is higher than somebody else in his respective tier, that's fine, but that's splitting hairs; it's not as significant as arguing a player belongs in a different tier.
And lastly, this is just one man's rankings. It's not definitive, and I'm not looking "under the hood" at true potentials or anything like that, just trying to provide content for the league. I would say that this is a very strong year for this list, and there’s going to be a lot of players who could be considered snubs. That’s a good thing!
Remember that players that aren’t rookies will also have a development score. Consider a 5 an average score -- it means that everything went as expected and the player is still on a similar path to what we thought last year.
With all that setup out of the way, let's get to the #1 prospect in TSFBL:
TIER 1:
1. PF Kevin Garnett (Pistons) - 22 (--)
For the third year in a row, there’s absolutely no intrigue as to who the top prospect in TSFBL is. At just 22 years old and on the final year of his rookie contract, Garnett is leading the league in both scoring and rebounding. As if that wasn’t enough, he was TSFBL’s Defensive Player of the Year in 1997. Last year, I questioned whether he was the best player in the league. Rest assured, that is no longer a question anymore.
All these accolades beg the question, “why would any team be looking to give up a player of this caliber?” The Clippers’ decision to do so is borderline unfathomable, but their loss is certainly the Pistons’ gain. After winning 16 of their first 20 games with Garnett in tow, it’s clear the Pistons are on the shortlist of title favorites for the near future.
Development Score: 5
2. PF Tim Duncan (Mavericks) - 22 (--)
While Duncan’s crusade to the 1997 Rookie of the Year award got unceremoniously cut short, he left enough of an impression in 48 games to assuage any doubt that he’s on the path to be one of the best players in the league. The injury ended up being arguably the best-case scenario for Mavericks fans. In his absence, the Mavericks were able to lose just enough to secure a top three pick, which allowed them to draft running mate to Duncan for years to come in Kansas’ Paul Pierce.
Now in his sophomore campaign, Duncan (along with a bolstered supporting cast) has the Mavericks in position to fight for a top seed in the Western Conference. Unfortunately, we were robbed of conference battles between he and Garnett for years to come, but the two will still face off two times a year, at minimum. After improving both his defense and rebounding in the off-season, Duncan will have to keep pace with Garnett’s development again to maintain Tier 1 status.
Development Score: 6
TIER 2:
3. SF Stephen Jackson (Bulls) - 20 (+2)
Last season, I wrote how despite not being the most prominent name on the roster, the best wing prospect in the league was hiding in plain sight in Chicago. After a year under his belt, Jackson has already ascended to become Chicago’s leading scorer, and there’s no hiding anymore. The Bulls are now his team, and they are on the brink of championship contention. We’re a far way away from the immediate reactions suggesting he was a reach when he was selected third in the 1997 Rookie Draft.
The most impressive thing about Jackson’s sophomore campaign is how well-rounded his game is. It’s not just that he’s shooting a percentage in the mid-forties from three on over five attempts per game, or that he’s improved as a playmaker, or that he’s one of the better wing defenders in the league. It’s the fact that he does all these things at the same time. Last year’s ranking of Jackson may have shocked a lot of readers, but this is a ranking that I nailed and it’s time to double down.
Development Score: 9
4. PG Stephon Marbury (Knicks) - 21 (+5)
Even the Knicks’ brass, who traded multiple future picks to move up from #10 to #4 and select Marbury in the 1996 Rookie Draft, couldn’t have expected the point guard’s development to go this well in his first three seasons. He’s everything they could’ve hoped for, and then some. He’s currently leading the #1 offense – by a wide margin – in the league. Every year, it appears impossible for Marbury’s development to continue at this rate, but he just keeps getting better.
Marbury’s progression can be seen all over the floor. He’s shooting a career high percentage from three to start the season, an area that was supposed to be a flaw of his coming into the league. He’s second in the league in assists after upping his average by roughly two per game, and he’s done it without sacrificing his turnover rate. While he’s not the best defender in the league, he possesses quick hands and has good instincts to rack up steals. Is there more room for the 21-year-old to improve? Don’t bet against it.
Development Score: 9
5. SG Kobe Bryant (Clippers) - 20 (+1)
Through no fault of his own, Kobe is going to be unfairly compared to the best player in the league for the rest of his career. While there were extraneous pieces on both sides of the trade, the core of the deal was trading away a player who’s already won an MVP award at age 22 for a guy who has yet to prove he’s worthy of the hype he came into TSFBL with as a rookie in 1996. The Clippers’ front office had their eyes on Bryant from the onset of their tenure, and they finally got their man. Now it’s up to Kobe to make them look like they didn’t just make the worst trade in TSFBL history.
Comparison aside, while the young Bryant has yet to take the leap into superstardom, he has made improvements to his game that have made him a markedly better player in year three. His raw numbers wouldn’t immediately reflect this, but he’s scoring better on a per-minute basis than he was a season ago, and much more efficiently to boot. He’s also much improved as a defender, an area I noted him having a lot of potential in last year’s rankings.
Development Score: 8
6. SF Antoine Walker (SuperSonics) - 22 (-3)
There isn’t a player in the league with a better setup than Walker has in Seattle. He has not one, but two high-level playmakers feeding him the ball on a nightly basis, and he never met a shot he didn’t like – there’s a reason he leads the league in field goal attempts per game by a considerable margin. But what makes Walker so good is that he maintains elite efficiency despite the high volume.
After a perfect development score of ten in last year’s rankings, Walker simply maintaining the status quo is good enough for him to retain a spot in the second tier. With that said, the development of the three guys who’ve passed him in the rankings in this year’s installment was impossible to ignore. Is there room left for Walker to grow as a prospect, or is he already maxed out at 22 years old? Even if the latter is true, he’s going to be a mainstay on All-League teams for years to come.
Development Score: 5
TIER 3:
7. PF Jermaine O'Neal (Spurs) - 20 (-3)
The deck got shuffled in a big way this past off-season for the Spurs, and the result was a team pivoting away from playoff contention to try and rebuild the core around O’Neal and fellow rookie Al Harrington. The long-term ramifications of the overhaul have yet to play out, but the short term has looked ugly. Without Jason Kidd running the show, the second-youngest roster in the league is on a collision course with top three lottery odds for the 1999 Rookie Draft.
Nobody misses Kidd more than Jermaine O’Neal, who’s seen his scoring average drop nearly five points per game without the star point guard by his side. This is now the second season in a row Jermaine’s scoring average has taken a dip, leaving questions about whether the rookie season of 30.5 points and 10.2 rebounds per game was the peak of O’Neal’s production. Despite the concerns, O’Neal is still just 20 years old and figures to be a fixture on this list for the next three years.
Development Score: 4
TIER 4:
8. SG Tracy McGrady (Warriors) - 19 (--)
After making the All-Rookie 1st Team a season ago, the expectations for McGrady were sky high coming into his sophomore campaign. After all, the Warriors did absolutely nothing in the off-season, clearly relying on internal development from what’s still one of the youngest rosters in the league. Unfortunately for the fans in the Bay Area, the step forward expected of both the team and the player have yet to be seen in the first half of the season.
While McGrady’s scoring has gone up in year two, it’s been a product more of minutes and volume than a major increase in efficiency. His three-point shooting percentage still hovers below 30%, and his turnovers have increased while his assists have gone down. He’s improved as a defender, but there’s still room to grow on that end of the court as well. McGrady still has ways to go to become the prospect many hoped he could be; thankfully, he’s still just 19 years old and has plenty of time to do so.
Development Score: 5
9. SG Ray Allen (Hornets) - 23 (-2)
Last season’s rankings dropped right on the heels of the Hornets’ move for veteran guard Doug Christie, and I mentioned how there was no doubt they had the best backcourt in the league. While that might be true from a talent perspective, the fit has been far from seamless. Nobody’s been more negatively affected by the deal than Allen, who’s effectiveness has plummeted in his first full season next to Christie.
As this will be Allen’s last year in the rankings, I’d like to take stock in where he stands as a prospect now. He’s one of the best scoring talents in the league at the guard position, and despite a huge dip in proficiency from behind the three-point arc, there’s still hope that he’ll wind up as one of TSFBL’s best shooters. His defense – the area in which he improved the most a season ago – is still solid. Charlotte is still one of the league’s top teams, but if they fall short again this season, it may be time to explore the long-term fit between Allen and Penny Hardaway.
Development Score: 4
10. PF Dirk Nowitzki (Timberwolves) - 20 (NEW)
The decision by the Hawks to not take Nowitzki with the #1 overall pick in this past off-season’s Rookie Draft shocked many, but it may have been the motivation the young German needed. 7-footers with his touch and range don’t come around very often, and Dirk’s shown early in his rookie season that he’ll be a special player in TSFBL. While he already possesses skills that many big men don’t have, the development of the skills that most do will be the key to him becoming a superstar.
As the centerpiece of one of the most exciting young cores in the league, many thought the Timberwolves would catch the league by surprise in a down year for the Western Conference. Unfortunately for Minnesotans, that has not been the case, largely due to a lack of defensive ineptitude. Still, this is a group that, growing pains and all, will be an exciting watch for the foreseeable future.
Development Score: N/A
Honorable Mention: (also in Tier 4 but outside of the top 10)
Names to Watch: (must be 22 or younger)
Graduates:
The list is a balance of "best case scenario" and "worst case scenario". It tends to skew younger, as the younger players (in theory) have higher upside and more paths to being good. Prospects were placed into tiers with other players that were thought to be like prospects -- if you believe a prospect is higher than somebody else in his respective tier, that's fine, but that's splitting hairs; it's not as significant as arguing a player belongs in a different tier.
And lastly, this is just one man's rankings. It's not definitive, and I'm not looking "under the hood" at true potentials or anything like that, just trying to provide content for the league. I would say that this is a very strong year for this list, and there’s going to be a lot of players who could be considered snubs. That’s a good thing!
Remember that players that aren’t rookies will also have a development score. Consider a 5 an average score -- it means that everything went as expected and the player is still on a similar path to what we thought last year.
With all that setup out of the way, let's get to the #1 prospect in TSFBL:
TIER 1:
1. PF Kevin Garnett (Pistons) - 22 (--)
For the third year in a row, there’s absolutely no intrigue as to who the top prospect in TSFBL is. At just 22 years old and on the final year of his rookie contract, Garnett is leading the league in both scoring and rebounding. As if that wasn’t enough, he was TSFBL’s Defensive Player of the Year in 1997. Last year, I questioned whether he was the best player in the league. Rest assured, that is no longer a question anymore.
All these accolades beg the question, “why would any team be looking to give up a player of this caliber?” The Clippers’ decision to do so is borderline unfathomable, but their loss is certainly the Pistons’ gain. After winning 16 of their first 20 games with Garnett in tow, it’s clear the Pistons are on the shortlist of title favorites for the near future.
Development Score: 5
2. PF Tim Duncan (Mavericks) - 22 (--)
While Duncan’s crusade to the 1997 Rookie of the Year award got unceremoniously cut short, he left enough of an impression in 48 games to assuage any doubt that he’s on the path to be one of the best players in the league. The injury ended up being arguably the best-case scenario for Mavericks fans. In his absence, the Mavericks were able to lose just enough to secure a top three pick, which allowed them to draft running mate to Duncan for years to come in Kansas’ Paul Pierce.
Now in his sophomore campaign, Duncan (along with a bolstered supporting cast) has the Mavericks in position to fight for a top seed in the Western Conference. Unfortunately, we were robbed of conference battles between he and Garnett for years to come, but the two will still face off two times a year, at minimum. After improving both his defense and rebounding in the off-season, Duncan will have to keep pace with Garnett’s development again to maintain Tier 1 status.
Development Score: 6
TIER 2:
3. SF Stephen Jackson (Bulls) - 20 (+2)
Last season, I wrote how despite not being the most prominent name on the roster, the best wing prospect in the league was hiding in plain sight in Chicago. After a year under his belt, Jackson has already ascended to become Chicago’s leading scorer, and there’s no hiding anymore. The Bulls are now his team, and they are on the brink of championship contention. We’re a far way away from the immediate reactions suggesting he was a reach when he was selected third in the 1997 Rookie Draft.
The most impressive thing about Jackson’s sophomore campaign is how well-rounded his game is. It’s not just that he’s shooting a percentage in the mid-forties from three on over five attempts per game, or that he’s improved as a playmaker, or that he’s one of the better wing defenders in the league. It’s the fact that he does all these things at the same time. Last year’s ranking of Jackson may have shocked a lot of readers, but this is a ranking that I nailed and it’s time to double down.
Development Score: 9
4. PG Stephon Marbury (Knicks) - 21 (+5)
Even the Knicks’ brass, who traded multiple future picks to move up from #10 to #4 and select Marbury in the 1996 Rookie Draft, couldn’t have expected the point guard’s development to go this well in his first three seasons. He’s everything they could’ve hoped for, and then some. He’s currently leading the #1 offense – by a wide margin – in the league. Every year, it appears impossible for Marbury’s development to continue at this rate, but he just keeps getting better.
Marbury’s progression can be seen all over the floor. He’s shooting a career high percentage from three to start the season, an area that was supposed to be a flaw of his coming into the league. He’s second in the league in assists after upping his average by roughly two per game, and he’s done it without sacrificing his turnover rate. While he’s not the best defender in the league, he possesses quick hands and has good instincts to rack up steals. Is there more room for the 21-year-old to improve? Don’t bet against it.
Development Score: 9
5. SG Kobe Bryant (Clippers) - 20 (+1)
Through no fault of his own, Kobe is going to be unfairly compared to the best player in the league for the rest of his career. While there were extraneous pieces on both sides of the trade, the core of the deal was trading away a player who’s already won an MVP award at age 22 for a guy who has yet to prove he’s worthy of the hype he came into TSFBL with as a rookie in 1996. The Clippers’ front office had their eyes on Bryant from the onset of their tenure, and they finally got their man. Now it’s up to Kobe to make them look like they didn’t just make the worst trade in TSFBL history.
Comparison aside, while the young Bryant has yet to take the leap into superstardom, he has made improvements to his game that have made him a markedly better player in year three. His raw numbers wouldn’t immediately reflect this, but he’s scoring better on a per-minute basis than he was a season ago, and much more efficiently to boot. He’s also much improved as a defender, an area I noted him having a lot of potential in last year’s rankings.
Development Score: 8
6. SF Antoine Walker (SuperSonics) - 22 (-3)
There isn’t a player in the league with a better setup than Walker has in Seattle. He has not one, but two high-level playmakers feeding him the ball on a nightly basis, and he never met a shot he didn’t like – there’s a reason he leads the league in field goal attempts per game by a considerable margin. But what makes Walker so good is that he maintains elite efficiency despite the high volume.
After a perfect development score of ten in last year’s rankings, Walker simply maintaining the status quo is good enough for him to retain a spot in the second tier. With that said, the development of the three guys who’ve passed him in the rankings in this year’s installment was impossible to ignore. Is there room left for Walker to grow as a prospect, or is he already maxed out at 22 years old? Even if the latter is true, he’s going to be a mainstay on All-League teams for years to come.
Development Score: 5
TIER 3:
7. PF Jermaine O'Neal (Spurs) - 20 (-3)
The deck got shuffled in a big way this past off-season for the Spurs, and the result was a team pivoting away from playoff contention to try and rebuild the core around O’Neal and fellow rookie Al Harrington. The long-term ramifications of the overhaul have yet to play out, but the short term has looked ugly. Without Jason Kidd running the show, the second-youngest roster in the league is on a collision course with top three lottery odds for the 1999 Rookie Draft.
Nobody misses Kidd more than Jermaine O’Neal, who’s seen his scoring average drop nearly five points per game without the star point guard by his side. This is now the second season in a row Jermaine’s scoring average has taken a dip, leaving questions about whether the rookie season of 30.5 points and 10.2 rebounds per game was the peak of O’Neal’s production. Despite the concerns, O’Neal is still just 20 years old and figures to be a fixture on this list for the next three years.
Development Score: 4
TIER 4:
8. SG Tracy McGrady (Warriors) - 19 (--)
After making the All-Rookie 1st Team a season ago, the expectations for McGrady were sky high coming into his sophomore campaign. After all, the Warriors did absolutely nothing in the off-season, clearly relying on internal development from what’s still one of the youngest rosters in the league. Unfortunately for the fans in the Bay Area, the step forward expected of both the team and the player have yet to be seen in the first half of the season.
While McGrady’s scoring has gone up in year two, it’s been a product more of minutes and volume than a major increase in efficiency. His three-point shooting percentage still hovers below 30%, and his turnovers have increased while his assists have gone down. He’s improved as a defender, but there’s still room to grow on that end of the court as well. McGrady still has ways to go to become the prospect many hoped he could be; thankfully, he’s still just 19 years old and has plenty of time to do so.
Development Score: 5
9. SG Ray Allen (Hornets) - 23 (-2)
Last season’s rankings dropped right on the heels of the Hornets’ move for veteran guard Doug Christie, and I mentioned how there was no doubt they had the best backcourt in the league. While that might be true from a talent perspective, the fit has been far from seamless. Nobody’s been more negatively affected by the deal than Allen, who’s effectiveness has plummeted in his first full season next to Christie.
As this will be Allen’s last year in the rankings, I’d like to take stock in where he stands as a prospect now. He’s one of the best scoring talents in the league at the guard position, and despite a huge dip in proficiency from behind the three-point arc, there’s still hope that he’ll wind up as one of TSFBL’s best shooters. His defense – the area in which he improved the most a season ago – is still solid. Charlotte is still one of the league’s top teams, but if they fall short again this season, it may be time to explore the long-term fit between Allen and Penny Hardaway.
Development Score: 4
10. PF Dirk Nowitzki (Timberwolves) - 20 (NEW)
The decision by the Hawks to not take Nowitzki with the #1 overall pick in this past off-season’s Rookie Draft shocked many, but it may have been the motivation the young German needed. 7-footers with his touch and range don’t come around very often, and Dirk’s shown early in his rookie season that he’ll be a special player in TSFBL. While he already possesses skills that many big men don’t have, the development of the skills that most do will be the key to him becoming a superstar.
As the centerpiece of one of the most exciting young cores in the league, many thought the Timberwolves would catch the league by surprise in a down year for the Western Conference. Unfortunately for Minnesotans, that has not been the case, largely due to a lack of defensive ineptitude. Still, this is a group that, growing pains and all, will be an exciting watch for the foreseeable future.
Development Score: N/A
Honorable Mention: (also in Tier 4 but outside of the top 10)
Names to Watch: (must be 22 or younger)
Graduates:
