Post by CC06 on Aug 25, 2022 13:32:18 GMT -5
We're back again for the fourth annual Top 10 Prospects list! As you may remember, only players 23 years old and younger were considered, regardless of the number of years they've played in the league to this point. Second, the player must currently be in the league now, so no Manu Ginobili, Dwyane Wade, etc.
The list is a balance of "best case scenario" and "worst case scenario". It tends to skew younger, as the younger players (in theory) have higher upside and more paths to being good. Prospects were placed into tiers with other players that were thought to be like prospects -- if you believe a prospect is higher than somebody else in his respective tier, that's fine, but that's splitting hairs; it's not as significant as arguing a player belongs in a different tier.
And lastly, this is just one man's rankings. It's not definitive, and I'm not looking "under the hood" at true potentials or anything like that, just trying to provide content for the league. I would say that this is a very strong year for this list, and there’s going to be a lot of players who could be considered snubs. That’s a good thing!
Remember that players that aren’t rookies will also have a development score. Consider a 5 an average score -- it means that everything went as expected and the player is still on a similar path to what we thought last year.
With all that setup out of the way, let's get to the #1 prospect in TSFBL:
TIER 1:
1. PF Kevin Garnett (Pistons) - 23 (--)
The reigning MVP twice over, Garnett clocks in at #1 on our list of top prospects for the fourth and final time. There’s not much left to write about Garnett – his production has taken a small step backwards but he’s still inarguably one of the best players in the league and a perennial MVP candidate. Next year, the number one spot on the list is wide open for the taking.
Development Score: 4
2. PF Tim Duncan (Mavericks) - 23 (--)
Like Garnett, Duncan is in his final year of eligibility for the list. Although he was never able to overtake KG for the number one spot, the fact that he kept pace with him in Tier 1 speaks volumes on both how good he’s been and how smoothly his game has progressed. Most importantly for Duncan, he’s grown more efficient every year he’s been in TSFBL. While the Mavericks haven’t taken the step forward into contention many might’ve expected them to, there’s no reason to think they won’t get there soon with Duncan as the centerpiece.
Development Score: 6
TIER 2:
3. SG Kobe Bryant (Clippers) - 21 (+2)
One of the most positive revelations of this season to date has been the star turn of Kobe Bryant, the former #1 overall pick who was the headline of the Clippers’ return when trading away Kevin Garnett. It’s not that Kobe ever looked like he’d be a bad player, but with lofty expectations (only amplified by trading away TSFBL’s MVP) came a lot of pressure to perform. In the final year before his maximum extension kicks in, Bryant is starting to come into his own.
After a surprise run to the Western Conference Finals last season, Bryant has emerged from the off-season as a star player and is likely leading the Clippers to one of the West’s top seeds this year in the process. He knows what it takes to be the leader of a contending team, and he is one of the league’s best two-way players at the same time. His supporting cast still leaves something to be desired, but in a Western Conference devoid of elite teams, it’s hard to bet against Bryant and the Clippers this season.
Development Score: 10
4. SF Stephen Jackson (Bulls) - 21 (-1)
For the third season in a row, Stephen Jackson and Kobe Bryant have landed in the same tier on the list, but this is the first time since Jackson entered TSFBL that he’s been surpassed by Bryant. With both Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan coming off the board next season, the league’s two best young wings are the best bet to claim the throne as the #1 prospect in TSFBL.
For all of Jackson’s progression in such a short time, it’s strange that the Bulls have yet to fully unleash the community college product, opting for a more balanced approach with a focus on scoring inside instead. They do have six players on the roster scoring over double figures, but surely Jackson can give them more than he currently is. With a max extension looming next off-season, it’ll be interesting to see if the increased salary brings about more offensive responsibilities as well.
Development Score: 7
TIER 3:
5. PG Stephon Marbury (Knicks) - 22 (-1)
Despite an incredibly productive season where he led the Knicks to one of the top records in the league and the Eastern Conference Finals, the Knicks made a questionable decision to bring in Jason Kidd to play alongside Stephon Marbury in the backcourt. Kidd, one of the league’s top passers, was always going to take away from what Marbury does best – creating with the ball in his hands. The duo had its moments together, but there certainly seemed to be some confusion as to whose team it really was.
Fast forward to the All-Star Break and Kidd has now been traded away in favor of Jerry Stackhouse, the explosive wing who has averaged over 24 points per game in all five years of his young career. While the team looks great on paper and the fit is a tad more natural, Stackhouse is still a guy who needs the ball in his hands to be most effective, which only takes away from Marbury’s time with it. The Knicks’ ability to find the right fit to complement last year’s All-League Second Team point guard will be a major storyline for years to come.
Development Score: 5
6. SF Ron Artest (Rockets) - 20 (NEW)
After two years in college, Artest came into TSFBL with as high a defensive reputation as any wing prospect who’s been drafted so far. What shocked many is the scoring output – he’s averaging over 23 points per game as a rookie after scoring just over 13 per game in his two years at St. John’s (NY). He and Michael Finley have combined to form one of the best wing duos in the league in Houston.
There’s a lot of reasons to like Artest, but it’s worth noting he’s in the midst of a noticeable shooting slump after starting off the year on a tear. It’ll be interesting to see just how much Ron’s offensive game develops in his career. He’s only 20 years old and has already surpassed expectations on that end of the floor. Had GM’s known he would’ve scored at this rate, it’s possible he would’ve been in consideration for the #1 overall pick in the draft.
Development Score: N/A
7. SF Antoine Walker (SuperSonics) - 23 (-1)
Despite a mediocre regular season for the SuperSonics, last season will be remembered as the year Antoine Walker put the franchise on his back and led them to the TSFBL Finals, coming just two wins away from a championship. Many assumed this run was a sign that the regular season was an aberration, but the Sonics have mirrored last year’s struggles so far in 1999. Barring another unlikely outcome this season, there will be a lot of questions to answer in Seattle.
With that said, it’s impossible to put this on Walker, who’s been every bit as good as the guy who’s made two All-League teams in the past two seasons. So where do the Sonics go from here, as Walker nears graduation age from the list? Their two guards, Nick Van Exel and Darrell Armstrong, are both at least five years older than Antoine. If it’s same to assume last season’s run was a fluke, the Sonics would be wise to move in a different direction after trying to recreate the magic of last year’s team.
Development Score: 5
TIER 4:
8. SF Shawn Marion (Celtics) - 21 (NEW)
The Celtics bottomed their way to the number one overall pick in last year’s Rookie Draft, and selected Shawn Marion out of UNLV for their troubles. Marion was highly touted as one of the best prospects in the class from an athletic perspective and can play both forward positions. So far in his rookie season, he’s also been one of the league’s best scoring rookies for a team that desperately needs every point he scores.
Where Marion’s biggest impact has been, however, is on the defensive end. Since inserting him into the lineup, they’ve had one of the best defenses in the league so far this season. While nobody is confusing the Celtics for title contenders, this defense has allowed them to stay on the periphery of the playoff hunt in an absolutely loaded Eastern Conference. If Marion’s defensive impact remains this potent, they’ll have bright days ahead when they add more talent to the roster.
Development Score: N/A
9. PF Jermaine O'Neal (Spurs) - 21 (-2)
Jermaine O’Neal remains one of the most puzzling prospects in the league to date. For the fourth year in a row, his output has not increased, but how much of this has to do with the talent around him? Obviously not many prospects come into a better situation than being drafted to a team with Jason Kidd, but his lack of production since the all-star point guard was traded away is very alarming.
Also, shouldn’t a player of this caliber be capable of lifting the Spurs to more than eleven wins last season? It’s all very puzzling, but there’s still a lot to like about Jermaine O’Neal, even if he’s not on the same level as the big men at the top of the list. He’s noticeably improved as a defender this season, and that’s one of the biggest keys of his development. With more talent soon coming into the fold in San Antonio, we should get a better idea of just how good Jermaine is soon.
Development Score: 4
10. SG Tracy McGrady (Grizzlies) - 20 (-2)
After two and a half years playing for the exact same team in Golden State, McGrady’s life was turned upside down when he was dealt to the lowly Vancouver Grizzlies for a record-setting haul. Many thought this would be the move that would allow an unlocked McGrady to flourish. Instead, with almost nothing around him of note, T-Mac has struggled to find his footing in Vancouver with all the attention on him.
His scoring is down from a season ago and he is turning the ball over at a rate that would surely lead the league if he did it over a full season. His three-point shot has again failed to take the step forward that is so vital to his development. So why is McGrady still on the list? Perhaps stubbornness, but he’s still only 20 years old and all players also considered for the final spot can’t say that. If he can have a developmental off-season like ones we’ve seen from Kobe Bryant and Stephen Jackson in past years, he’ll shoot right back up the list.
Development Score: 3
Honorable Mention: (also in Tier 4 but outside of the top 10)
Names to Watch: (must be 22 or younger)
Graduates:
The list is a balance of "best case scenario" and "worst case scenario". It tends to skew younger, as the younger players (in theory) have higher upside and more paths to being good. Prospects were placed into tiers with other players that were thought to be like prospects -- if you believe a prospect is higher than somebody else in his respective tier, that's fine, but that's splitting hairs; it's not as significant as arguing a player belongs in a different tier.
And lastly, this is just one man's rankings. It's not definitive, and I'm not looking "under the hood" at true potentials or anything like that, just trying to provide content for the league. I would say that this is a very strong year for this list, and there’s going to be a lot of players who could be considered snubs. That’s a good thing!
Remember that players that aren’t rookies will also have a development score. Consider a 5 an average score -- it means that everything went as expected and the player is still on a similar path to what we thought last year.
With all that setup out of the way, let's get to the #1 prospect in TSFBL:
TIER 1:
1. PF Kevin Garnett (Pistons) - 23 (--)
The reigning MVP twice over, Garnett clocks in at #1 on our list of top prospects for the fourth and final time. There’s not much left to write about Garnett – his production has taken a small step backwards but he’s still inarguably one of the best players in the league and a perennial MVP candidate. Next year, the number one spot on the list is wide open for the taking.
Development Score: 4
2. PF Tim Duncan (Mavericks) - 23 (--)
Like Garnett, Duncan is in his final year of eligibility for the list. Although he was never able to overtake KG for the number one spot, the fact that he kept pace with him in Tier 1 speaks volumes on both how good he’s been and how smoothly his game has progressed. Most importantly for Duncan, he’s grown more efficient every year he’s been in TSFBL. While the Mavericks haven’t taken the step forward into contention many might’ve expected them to, there’s no reason to think they won’t get there soon with Duncan as the centerpiece.
Development Score: 6
TIER 2:
3. SG Kobe Bryant (Clippers) - 21 (+2)
One of the most positive revelations of this season to date has been the star turn of Kobe Bryant, the former #1 overall pick who was the headline of the Clippers’ return when trading away Kevin Garnett. It’s not that Kobe ever looked like he’d be a bad player, but with lofty expectations (only amplified by trading away TSFBL’s MVP) came a lot of pressure to perform. In the final year before his maximum extension kicks in, Bryant is starting to come into his own.
After a surprise run to the Western Conference Finals last season, Bryant has emerged from the off-season as a star player and is likely leading the Clippers to one of the West’s top seeds this year in the process. He knows what it takes to be the leader of a contending team, and he is one of the league’s best two-way players at the same time. His supporting cast still leaves something to be desired, but in a Western Conference devoid of elite teams, it’s hard to bet against Bryant and the Clippers this season.
Development Score: 10
4. SF Stephen Jackson (Bulls) - 21 (-1)
For the third season in a row, Stephen Jackson and Kobe Bryant have landed in the same tier on the list, but this is the first time since Jackson entered TSFBL that he’s been surpassed by Bryant. With both Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan coming off the board next season, the league’s two best young wings are the best bet to claim the throne as the #1 prospect in TSFBL.
For all of Jackson’s progression in such a short time, it’s strange that the Bulls have yet to fully unleash the community college product, opting for a more balanced approach with a focus on scoring inside instead. They do have six players on the roster scoring over double figures, but surely Jackson can give them more than he currently is. With a max extension looming next off-season, it’ll be interesting to see if the increased salary brings about more offensive responsibilities as well.
Development Score: 7
TIER 3:
5. PG Stephon Marbury (Knicks) - 22 (-1)
Despite an incredibly productive season where he led the Knicks to one of the top records in the league and the Eastern Conference Finals, the Knicks made a questionable decision to bring in Jason Kidd to play alongside Stephon Marbury in the backcourt. Kidd, one of the league’s top passers, was always going to take away from what Marbury does best – creating with the ball in his hands. The duo had its moments together, but there certainly seemed to be some confusion as to whose team it really was.
Fast forward to the All-Star Break and Kidd has now been traded away in favor of Jerry Stackhouse, the explosive wing who has averaged over 24 points per game in all five years of his young career. While the team looks great on paper and the fit is a tad more natural, Stackhouse is still a guy who needs the ball in his hands to be most effective, which only takes away from Marbury’s time with it. The Knicks’ ability to find the right fit to complement last year’s All-League Second Team point guard will be a major storyline for years to come.
Development Score: 5
6. SF Ron Artest (Rockets) - 20 (NEW)
After two years in college, Artest came into TSFBL with as high a defensive reputation as any wing prospect who’s been drafted so far. What shocked many is the scoring output – he’s averaging over 23 points per game as a rookie after scoring just over 13 per game in his two years at St. John’s (NY). He and Michael Finley have combined to form one of the best wing duos in the league in Houston.
There’s a lot of reasons to like Artest, but it’s worth noting he’s in the midst of a noticeable shooting slump after starting off the year on a tear. It’ll be interesting to see just how much Ron’s offensive game develops in his career. He’s only 20 years old and has already surpassed expectations on that end of the floor. Had GM’s known he would’ve scored at this rate, it’s possible he would’ve been in consideration for the #1 overall pick in the draft.
Development Score: N/A
7. SF Antoine Walker (SuperSonics) - 23 (-1)
Despite a mediocre regular season for the SuperSonics, last season will be remembered as the year Antoine Walker put the franchise on his back and led them to the TSFBL Finals, coming just two wins away from a championship. Many assumed this run was a sign that the regular season was an aberration, but the Sonics have mirrored last year’s struggles so far in 1999. Barring another unlikely outcome this season, there will be a lot of questions to answer in Seattle.
With that said, it’s impossible to put this on Walker, who’s been every bit as good as the guy who’s made two All-League teams in the past two seasons. So where do the Sonics go from here, as Walker nears graduation age from the list? Their two guards, Nick Van Exel and Darrell Armstrong, are both at least five years older than Antoine. If it’s same to assume last season’s run was a fluke, the Sonics would be wise to move in a different direction after trying to recreate the magic of last year’s team.
Development Score: 5
TIER 4:
8. SF Shawn Marion (Celtics) - 21 (NEW)
The Celtics bottomed their way to the number one overall pick in last year’s Rookie Draft, and selected Shawn Marion out of UNLV for their troubles. Marion was highly touted as one of the best prospects in the class from an athletic perspective and can play both forward positions. So far in his rookie season, he’s also been one of the league’s best scoring rookies for a team that desperately needs every point he scores.
Where Marion’s biggest impact has been, however, is on the defensive end. Since inserting him into the lineup, they’ve had one of the best defenses in the league so far this season. While nobody is confusing the Celtics for title contenders, this defense has allowed them to stay on the periphery of the playoff hunt in an absolutely loaded Eastern Conference. If Marion’s defensive impact remains this potent, they’ll have bright days ahead when they add more talent to the roster.
Development Score: N/A
9. PF Jermaine O'Neal (Spurs) - 21 (-2)
Jermaine O’Neal remains one of the most puzzling prospects in the league to date. For the fourth year in a row, his output has not increased, but how much of this has to do with the talent around him? Obviously not many prospects come into a better situation than being drafted to a team with Jason Kidd, but his lack of production since the all-star point guard was traded away is very alarming.
Also, shouldn’t a player of this caliber be capable of lifting the Spurs to more than eleven wins last season? It’s all very puzzling, but there’s still a lot to like about Jermaine O’Neal, even if he’s not on the same level as the big men at the top of the list. He’s noticeably improved as a defender this season, and that’s one of the biggest keys of his development. With more talent soon coming into the fold in San Antonio, we should get a better idea of just how good Jermaine is soon.
Development Score: 4
10. SG Tracy McGrady (Grizzlies) - 20 (-2)
After two and a half years playing for the exact same team in Golden State, McGrady’s life was turned upside down when he was dealt to the lowly Vancouver Grizzlies for a record-setting haul. Many thought this would be the move that would allow an unlocked McGrady to flourish. Instead, with almost nothing around him of note, T-Mac has struggled to find his footing in Vancouver with all the attention on him.
His scoring is down from a season ago and he is turning the ball over at a rate that would surely lead the league if he did it over a full season. His three-point shot has again failed to take the step forward that is so vital to his development. So why is McGrady still on the list? Perhaps stubbornness, but he’s still only 20 years old and all players also considered for the final spot can’t say that. If he can have a developmental off-season like ones we’ve seen from Kobe Bryant and Stephen Jackson in past years, he’ll shoot right back up the list.
Development Score: 3
Honorable Mention: (also in Tier 4 but outside of the top 10)
Names to Watch: (must be 22 or younger)
Graduates:
