Post by CC06 on Oct 4, 2022 12:27:34 GMT -5
We're back again for the fourth annual Top 10 Prospects list! As you may remember, only players 23 years old and younger were considered, regardless of the number of years they've played in the league to this point. Second, the player must currently be in the league now, so no Manu Ginobili, Yao Ming, etc.
The list is a balance of "best case scenario" and "worst case scenario". It tends to skew younger, as the younger players (in theory) have higher upside and more paths to being good. Prospects were placed into tiers with other players that were thought to be like prospects -- if you believe a prospect is higher than somebody else in his respective tier, that's fine, but that's splitting hairs; it's not as significant as arguing a player belongs in a different tier.
And lastly, this is just one man's rankings. It's not definitive, and I'm not looking "under the hood" at true potentials or anything like that, just trying to provide content for the league. I would say that this is a very strong year for this list, and there’s going to be a lot of players who could be considered snubs. That’s a good thing!
Remember that players that aren’t rookies will also have a development score. Consider a 5 an average score -- it means that everything went as expected and the player is still on a similar path to what we thought last year.
With all that setup out of the way, let's get to the #1 prospect in TSFBL:
TIER 1:
1. SG Kobe Bryant (Clippers) - 22 (+2)
With both Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan expiring their eligibility for this list, the number one spot was wide open for the taking. While Kobe was #3 last year and the most likely to fill the spot, it’d be a disservice to treat him as the top prospect “by default” and not give him the credit he deserves for earning the spot. Had Duncan and Garnett still been eligible, they both would have still been ahead of Kobe, but it’s very likely that Bryant would have risen into the same tier as the two power forwards.
It's also worth pointing out that the Clippers’ management has done a much better job of putting Bryant in a position to thrive. Most importantly, they gave him a competent backcourt mate in Sam Cassell, one of TSFBL’s best at setting up his teammates. This has taken a major burden off Bryant’s shoulders offensively and has allowed him to focus on scoring – something he does better than any wing in the league.
Development Score: 8
2. PG Stephon Marbury (Knicks) - 23 (+3)
Betting against Marbury’s improvement at any point in his TSFBL career has been a fool’s errand. He continues to improve at a rapid rate and doesn’t show any signs of slowing down. His argument as the best offensive player in TSFBL has only gotten stronger, and he has made massive strides on the defensive side for the first time in his career. Most would consider him the best point guard in the league at just 23 years of age.
The most interesting subplot featuring Marbury has been how the Knicks have used him this season. In the two seasons before this one, the Knicks had arguably the most loaded roster in the league and had to find a way to balance the usage of all their star players. This season’s roster, on the other hand, is Stephon and a supporting cast trying to best complement him. This has allowed Marbury full offensive freedom and he’s responded with the best statistical season of his career.
Development Score: 8
TIER 2:
3. SF Stephen Jackson (Bulls) - 22 (+1)
After some off-season turmoil, the Bulls fell under new management with a clear mandate: “This is Stephen Jackson’s team.” Much of the roster from previous seasons still remains, but the focus has shifted, and Jackson has responded with career highs in almost every category. He also leads the league in minutes per game, and the Bulls have needed him to play every single one of them to stay competitive this season.
After three years attached at the hip to Kobe Bryant in these rankings, this is the first year Jackson has fallen behind the Clippers’ star. While both have a great chance to feature on the All-League First Team this season at just 22-years-old, Bryant’s ability to lead a team to a top record is something we have yet to see from Jackson as the #1 guy. With one year left of eligibility, we’ll see if Jackson can flip the script on the rankings one more time.
Development Score: 7
TIER 3:
4. SF Ron Artest (Rockets) - 21 (+2)
After one season as the understudy to Michael Finley, the Houston Rockets have turned the keys of the franchise over to sophomore Ron Artest. With no current expectations to win, Artest has all the freedom to experiment and grow offensively. While he has shown amazing flashes as a scorer, there have also been a lot of growing pains – he is among the league leaders in turnovers. Can he be the #1 offensive option on one of the league’s best teams in the future, or is he better cast in a secondary role?
Whether or not Artest develops into one of the league’s best offensive players remains to be seen, but there is no question about his ability and potential on the defensive end. Only 21, he’s already one of the league’s best wing defenders and is strong enough to defend up a position as well. There are many All-League Defense Team appearances in his future, and if his offense gets to the level many are expecting, we’re looking at one of TSFBL’s best players for years to come.
Development Score: 6
5. SG Dwyane Wade (76ers) - 22 (NEW)
As surprising as this may sound, Wade is the first #1 overall pick since Tim Duncan to rank the highest among his draft class on this list. He’s been as good as anybody could expect as a rookie, and he’s got the fans in Philadelphia in a tizzy over how exciting the future could be. That’s not to dismiss their current success, as well, as they currently sit firmly entrenched in a playoff spot in the tough Eastern Conference.
Simply put, Wade’s ability to leap up this list is going to come down to his ability to develop a three-point shot. It was a noted weakness of his coming into TSFBL, and his rookie season has done nothing to dissuade the concerns. He has the potential to be near elite at just about every other skill, so just becoming a competent 30% shooter from behind the arc would do wonders for his career.
Development Score: N/A
TIER 4:
6. PG Baron Davis (Nets) - 21 (NEW)
The Nets’ multi-year tank effort needs to result in multiple players winding up on this list to be considered successful, and hopefully Baron Davis is only the first. We highlighted Davis as a name to watch last season despite growing pains as a rookie. Now in his second season, the UCLA product has taken significant strides and looks well on his way to becoming one of the best point guards in TSFBL.
On the spectrum of point guard style of play, Baron leans more towards the Jason Kidd model than a score-first type like Stephon Marbury. He has a great capacity to run a team and doesn’t always assert himself as a scorer despite having the prerequisite skills to do so when needed. He also projects as one of the best defenders in the league at the position in his prime. As more talent heads New Jersey’s way in the off-season, it will be fun to see Davis play with a full complement of weapons alongside him.
Development Score: 9
7. SF Shawn Marion (76ers) - 22 (+1)
Dwyane Wade isn’t the only prospect the 76ers have worth being excited about, and they’re the only team in the league to have two entries on the list. The 76ers made a big move for Marion in the off-season, trading their first-round pick from the same draft, Lamar Odom, as well as multiple draft picks to acquire the guy who went #1 overall. Time will well what price they paid with those draft picks, but they certainly have one of the best young duos in TSFBL as a result.
There’s so much to like about Marion as a prospect, starting with his defensive efforts that were good enough for All-Defense Second Team as only a rookie. His versatility at both forward positions has allowed Philadelphia to experiment with many different lineups this season, and Marion has shined in all different roles. If his uptick in three-point percentage is a permanent improvement, he’s going to be one of the best two-way players in the league for a long time.
Development Score: 6
TIER 5:
8. C Pau Gasol (Raptors) - 21 (NEW)
While most considered Wade as a the top prize of the 2000 Rookie Draft, the Raptors got a great consolation prize in Pau Gasol. The Spaniard has won three of the first four Rookie of the Month awards this season and appears to have the inside track on winning the yearly award. He’s an incredibly gifted offensive player who has experienced zero growing pains when it comes to scoring on TSFBL defenses, from anywhere on the court.
Gasol’s trajectory as a prospect will largely depend on his ability to develop as a defender and rebounder. On the high end, he could become one of the elite big men in TSFBL – something a Raptors franchise that inexplicably traded away control of its first-round pick for three years in a row desperately needs. The city of Toronto and dinosaur enthusiasts alike have hitched all their wagons to Gasol, and he must come through for any chance of avoiding complete mediocrity.
Development Score: N/A
9. PF Elton Brand (Pacers) - 21 (NEW)
Landing Brand with the second overall pick in the 1999 Rookie Draft was a franchise changing move for Indiana – the Pacers improved by 19 wins the following season and made the playoffs for the first time since 1995. As a frontcourt rock who could reliably score 20 points and grab 10 rebounds as a rookie, he was everything the franchise needed. His contributions didn’t go unnoticed, as he was awarded the 1999 Rookie of the Year trophy.
The biggest question regarding Brand as a prospect is, as unfair as this might sound so early in his career, how much room does he have left to grow? Don’t get me wrong, any team would sign up for 20 and 10 from their big man, but does he have another level? If he doesn’t, then, as much of a feel-good story as they were last season, the Pacers are still far away from contention. On the other hand, if he can rise to the level of the league’s best frontcourt players, the Pacers are cooking with gas.
Development Score: 5
10. SG Larry Hughes (Heat) - 22 (NEW)
When the Heat traded two lightly protected first round picks for a rookie Larry Hughes, he unfairly became one of the league’s most scrutinized players. Let’s face it, that trade was a disaster – the Heat gave up the #4 overall pick from it already and still have one more pick owed to New Jersey. With all that said, with Hughes’ development, there’s a semi-realistic chance he winds up as the best player from the deal, and that would do wonders in mitigating the damage caused by the trade.
Focusing on the player himself, Hughes has been the best player for a Miami team in the thick of the playoff hunt. One season after inexplicably being relegated to a bench role, he’s averaging over 24 points per game while shooting a career high from both the field and from three. A Heat playoff berth would cause them to lose their draft pick season, it’d be a meaningful step for an organization that needs some good PR after a few rocky years.
Development Score: 7
Honorable Mention: (also in Tier 5 but outside of the top 10)
Names to Watch: (must be 22 or younger)
Graduates:
The list is a balance of "best case scenario" and "worst case scenario". It tends to skew younger, as the younger players (in theory) have higher upside and more paths to being good. Prospects were placed into tiers with other players that were thought to be like prospects -- if you believe a prospect is higher than somebody else in his respective tier, that's fine, but that's splitting hairs; it's not as significant as arguing a player belongs in a different tier.
And lastly, this is just one man's rankings. It's not definitive, and I'm not looking "under the hood" at true potentials or anything like that, just trying to provide content for the league. I would say that this is a very strong year for this list, and there’s going to be a lot of players who could be considered snubs. That’s a good thing!
Remember that players that aren’t rookies will also have a development score. Consider a 5 an average score -- it means that everything went as expected and the player is still on a similar path to what we thought last year.
With all that setup out of the way, let's get to the #1 prospect in TSFBL:
TIER 1:
1. SG Kobe Bryant (Clippers) - 22 (+2)
With both Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan expiring their eligibility for this list, the number one spot was wide open for the taking. While Kobe was #3 last year and the most likely to fill the spot, it’d be a disservice to treat him as the top prospect “by default” and not give him the credit he deserves for earning the spot. Had Duncan and Garnett still been eligible, they both would have still been ahead of Kobe, but it’s very likely that Bryant would have risen into the same tier as the two power forwards.
It's also worth pointing out that the Clippers’ management has done a much better job of putting Bryant in a position to thrive. Most importantly, they gave him a competent backcourt mate in Sam Cassell, one of TSFBL’s best at setting up his teammates. This has taken a major burden off Bryant’s shoulders offensively and has allowed him to focus on scoring – something he does better than any wing in the league.
Development Score: 8
2. PG Stephon Marbury (Knicks) - 23 (+3)
Betting against Marbury’s improvement at any point in his TSFBL career has been a fool’s errand. He continues to improve at a rapid rate and doesn’t show any signs of slowing down. His argument as the best offensive player in TSFBL has only gotten stronger, and he has made massive strides on the defensive side for the first time in his career. Most would consider him the best point guard in the league at just 23 years of age.
The most interesting subplot featuring Marbury has been how the Knicks have used him this season. In the two seasons before this one, the Knicks had arguably the most loaded roster in the league and had to find a way to balance the usage of all their star players. This season’s roster, on the other hand, is Stephon and a supporting cast trying to best complement him. This has allowed Marbury full offensive freedom and he’s responded with the best statistical season of his career.
Development Score: 8
TIER 2:
3. SF Stephen Jackson (Bulls) - 22 (+1)
After some off-season turmoil, the Bulls fell under new management with a clear mandate: “This is Stephen Jackson’s team.” Much of the roster from previous seasons still remains, but the focus has shifted, and Jackson has responded with career highs in almost every category. He also leads the league in minutes per game, and the Bulls have needed him to play every single one of them to stay competitive this season.
After three years attached at the hip to Kobe Bryant in these rankings, this is the first year Jackson has fallen behind the Clippers’ star. While both have a great chance to feature on the All-League First Team this season at just 22-years-old, Bryant’s ability to lead a team to a top record is something we have yet to see from Jackson as the #1 guy. With one year left of eligibility, we’ll see if Jackson can flip the script on the rankings one more time.
Development Score: 7
TIER 3:
4. SF Ron Artest (Rockets) - 21 (+2)
After one season as the understudy to Michael Finley, the Houston Rockets have turned the keys of the franchise over to sophomore Ron Artest. With no current expectations to win, Artest has all the freedom to experiment and grow offensively. While he has shown amazing flashes as a scorer, there have also been a lot of growing pains – he is among the league leaders in turnovers. Can he be the #1 offensive option on one of the league’s best teams in the future, or is he better cast in a secondary role?
Whether or not Artest develops into one of the league’s best offensive players remains to be seen, but there is no question about his ability and potential on the defensive end. Only 21, he’s already one of the league’s best wing defenders and is strong enough to defend up a position as well. There are many All-League Defense Team appearances in his future, and if his offense gets to the level many are expecting, we’re looking at one of TSFBL’s best players for years to come.
Development Score: 6
5. SG Dwyane Wade (76ers) - 22 (NEW)
As surprising as this may sound, Wade is the first #1 overall pick since Tim Duncan to rank the highest among his draft class on this list. He’s been as good as anybody could expect as a rookie, and he’s got the fans in Philadelphia in a tizzy over how exciting the future could be. That’s not to dismiss their current success, as well, as they currently sit firmly entrenched in a playoff spot in the tough Eastern Conference.
Simply put, Wade’s ability to leap up this list is going to come down to his ability to develop a three-point shot. It was a noted weakness of his coming into TSFBL, and his rookie season has done nothing to dissuade the concerns. He has the potential to be near elite at just about every other skill, so just becoming a competent 30% shooter from behind the arc would do wonders for his career.
Development Score: N/A
TIER 4:
6. PG Baron Davis (Nets) - 21 (NEW)
The Nets’ multi-year tank effort needs to result in multiple players winding up on this list to be considered successful, and hopefully Baron Davis is only the first. We highlighted Davis as a name to watch last season despite growing pains as a rookie. Now in his second season, the UCLA product has taken significant strides and looks well on his way to becoming one of the best point guards in TSFBL.
On the spectrum of point guard style of play, Baron leans more towards the Jason Kidd model than a score-first type like Stephon Marbury. He has a great capacity to run a team and doesn’t always assert himself as a scorer despite having the prerequisite skills to do so when needed. He also projects as one of the best defenders in the league at the position in his prime. As more talent heads New Jersey’s way in the off-season, it will be fun to see Davis play with a full complement of weapons alongside him.
Development Score: 9
7. SF Shawn Marion (76ers) - 22 (+1)
Dwyane Wade isn’t the only prospect the 76ers have worth being excited about, and they’re the only team in the league to have two entries on the list. The 76ers made a big move for Marion in the off-season, trading their first-round pick from the same draft, Lamar Odom, as well as multiple draft picks to acquire the guy who went #1 overall. Time will well what price they paid with those draft picks, but they certainly have one of the best young duos in TSFBL as a result.
There’s so much to like about Marion as a prospect, starting with his defensive efforts that were good enough for All-Defense Second Team as only a rookie. His versatility at both forward positions has allowed Philadelphia to experiment with many different lineups this season, and Marion has shined in all different roles. If his uptick in three-point percentage is a permanent improvement, he’s going to be one of the best two-way players in the league for a long time.
Development Score: 6
TIER 5:
8. C Pau Gasol (Raptors) - 21 (NEW)
While most considered Wade as a the top prize of the 2000 Rookie Draft, the Raptors got a great consolation prize in Pau Gasol. The Spaniard has won three of the first four Rookie of the Month awards this season and appears to have the inside track on winning the yearly award. He’s an incredibly gifted offensive player who has experienced zero growing pains when it comes to scoring on TSFBL defenses, from anywhere on the court.
Gasol’s trajectory as a prospect will largely depend on his ability to develop as a defender and rebounder. On the high end, he could become one of the elite big men in TSFBL – something a Raptors franchise that inexplicably traded away control of its first-round pick for three years in a row desperately needs. The city of Toronto and dinosaur enthusiasts alike have hitched all their wagons to Gasol, and he must come through for any chance of avoiding complete mediocrity.
Development Score: N/A
9. PF Elton Brand (Pacers) - 21 (NEW)
Landing Brand with the second overall pick in the 1999 Rookie Draft was a franchise changing move for Indiana – the Pacers improved by 19 wins the following season and made the playoffs for the first time since 1995. As a frontcourt rock who could reliably score 20 points and grab 10 rebounds as a rookie, he was everything the franchise needed. His contributions didn’t go unnoticed, as he was awarded the 1999 Rookie of the Year trophy.
The biggest question regarding Brand as a prospect is, as unfair as this might sound so early in his career, how much room does he have left to grow? Don’t get me wrong, any team would sign up for 20 and 10 from their big man, but does he have another level? If he doesn’t, then, as much of a feel-good story as they were last season, the Pacers are still far away from contention. On the other hand, if he can rise to the level of the league’s best frontcourt players, the Pacers are cooking with gas.
Development Score: 5
10. SG Larry Hughes (Heat) - 22 (NEW)
When the Heat traded two lightly protected first round picks for a rookie Larry Hughes, he unfairly became one of the league’s most scrutinized players. Let’s face it, that trade was a disaster – the Heat gave up the #4 overall pick from it already and still have one more pick owed to New Jersey. With all that said, with Hughes’ development, there’s a semi-realistic chance he winds up as the best player from the deal, and that would do wonders in mitigating the damage caused by the trade.
Focusing on the player himself, Hughes has been the best player for a Miami team in the thick of the playoff hunt. One season after inexplicably being relegated to a bench role, he’s averaging over 24 points per game while shooting a career high from both the field and from three. A Heat playoff berth would cause them to lose their draft pick season, it’d be a meaningful step for an organization that needs some good PR after a few rocky years.
Development Score: 7
Honorable Mention: (also in Tier 5 but outside of the top 10)
Names to Watch: (must be 22 or younger)
Graduates:
