Post by CC06 on Dec 7, 2022 11:22:48 GMT -5
We're back again for the fourth annual Top 10 Prospects list! For now, I'm going to convert this into a bit of a shorter piece, as I don't have as much time or interest in writing right now.
As you may remember, only players 23 years old and younger were considered, regardless of the number of years they've played in the league to this point. Second, the player must currently be in the league now, so no Manu Ginobili, LeBron James, etc.
The list is a balance of "best case scenario" and "worst case scenario". It tends to skew younger, as the younger players (in theory) have higher upside and more paths to being good. Prospects were placed into tiers with other players that were thought to be like prospects -- if you believe a prospect is higher than somebody else in his respective tier, that's fine, but that's splitting hairs; it's not as significant as arguing a player belongs in a different tier.
And lastly, this is just one man's rankings. It's not definitive, and I'm not looking "under the hood" at true potentials or anything like that, just trying to provide content for the league. I would say that this is a very strong year for this list, and there’s going to be a lot of players who could be considered snubs. That’s a good thing!
Remember that players that aren’t rookies will also have a development score. Consider a 5 an average score -- it means that everything went as expected and the player is still on a similar path to what we thought last year.
With all that setup out of the way, let's get to the #1 prospect in TSFBL:
TIER 1:
1. SF Stephen Jackson (Bulls) - 23 (+2)
Despite bringing back almost an identical roster to the team that went 38-44 a season ago, the Chicago Bulls had the league’s third highest increase in SRS this season. The primary reason for the jump was due to Stephen Jackson’s ascendance to superstardom. His efficiency skyrocketed, most evident by his increase in points per game despite averaging four fewer minutes. This is sadly Jackson’s final year of prospect eligibility, but that doesn’t mean he can’t continue to improve as he approaches the prime of his career. Watch out, TSFBL.
Development Score: 7
2. SG Kobe Bryant (Clippers) - 23 (-1)
After claiming the #1 spot in last year’s rankings, Bryant falls down a peg in this year’s rankings while remaining in the top tier. The regular season Clippers posed more questions than they answered after the Finals run in 2000, and Kobe wasn’t immune to the skepticism. It was the most turnover-prone we’ve ever seen Bryant, and his scoring went down as well. In the playoffs, we were able to see Kobe at his best in taking the Clippers to the brink of a championship for the second consecutive season. The rivalry between he and Jackson will continue for years to come, as they jockey for the title of best wing in the league.
Development Score: 5
TIER 2:
3. SF Ron Artest (Rockets) - 22 (+1)
For much of the season, Artest looked to have had the entire Rockets franchise strapped to his back on the road to the playoffs. While the team eventually ran out of gas and finished 12-30 down the stretch, the first 40 games were a sign that this team is not going to be out of the playoff picture for much longer if Artest is still in the fold. He finished top five in the league in scoring and displayed every bit of the defensive prowess he was projected as a prospect. With one year left on his rookie contract, the time is nearing for the Rockets to pivot into trying to build a contender around one of the league’s best young players.
Development Score: 8
TIER 3:
4. SG Dwyane Wade (76ers) - 23 (+1)
There’s no doubt the superstar trajectory of Wade hinges on his ability to develop a three-point shot. As a sophomore, his volume from behind the arc went down, but he was able to increase his proficiency from 22.1 to 26.4 percent. As a team, the 76ers were one of the league’s big surprises this season, pushed by their young core all the way to the Conference Finals. They’ll face big expectations next season, and their hopes of a championship down the line are reliant on Wade developing into the franchise’s superstar.
Development Score: 5
5. SF Shawn Marion (76ers) - 23 (+2)
On a roster with the past three #1 overall picks in tow, Marion has arguably made himself the most indispensable player. He’s maintained solid efficiency as a 20 points per game scorer at both forward positions, and he’s capable of guarding just about anybody in the league on a given night.
Development Score: 6
TIER 4:
6. SG Michael Redd (Nuggets) - 22 (NEW)
Redd’s explosion into a 30 points per game scorer on good efficiency was one of the league’s most shocking developments this season. The Nuggets traded away many futures firsts to bank on the current core, and needed such a development to have any hope that the gamble might pay off.
Development Score: 9
7. PG Baron Davis (Nets) - 22 (-1)
After a season where the Nets finally showed signs of competency, it’s time to look at the rebuilding core in a macro lens. Davis, as the head of a snake, projects to be one of the top point guards in the league, but the jury is still out on whether he’s the guy to bring the Nets into an era of contention or a complementary piece.
Development Score: 4
8. C Pau Gasol (Raptors) - 22 (--)
After just two seasons, it sure seems like Gasol has already ascended as the second-best center in the league. Unfortunately, the supporting cast around him just isn’t strong enough, and the organization hasn’t done much in the way of improving it.
Development Score: 6
TIER 5:
9. PF Elton Brand (Pacers) - 22 (--)
Last year, the question was (perhaps unfairly) posed of whether Brand had much room to grow as a prospect. In his third season, it appears that some of the concern of Brand already being a finish product have borne out. Still, a 20/10 big with solid defensive fundamentals can play for just about any team.
Development Score: 4
10. SF Rashard Lewis (Bucks) - 22 (NEW)
Lewis shut down all extension talks last offseason to bet on himself, and he appears to have made a lot of money in doing so. If the Bucks can’t afford to keep him in the summer, it’ll be interesting to see Rashard on a team where he has more offensive freedom.
Development Score: 7
Honorable Mention: (also in Tier 5 but outside of the top 10)
Names to Watch: (must be 22 or younger)
Graduates:
As you may remember, only players 23 years old and younger were considered, regardless of the number of years they've played in the league to this point. Second, the player must currently be in the league now, so no Manu Ginobili, LeBron James, etc.
The list is a balance of "best case scenario" and "worst case scenario". It tends to skew younger, as the younger players (in theory) have higher upside and more paths to being good. Prospects were placed into tiers with other players that were thought to be like prospects -- if you believe a prospect is higher than somebody else in his respective tier, that's fine, but that's splitting hairs; it's not as significant as arguing a player belongs in a different tier.
And lastly, this is just one man's rankings. It's not definitive, and I'm not looking "under the hood" at true potentials or anything like that, just trying to provide content for the league. I would say that this is a very strong year for this list, and there’s going to be a lot of players who could be considered snubs. That’s a good thing!
Remember that players that aren’t rookies will also have a development score. Consider a 5 an average score -- it means that everything went as expected and the player is still on a similar path to what we thought last year.
With all that setup out of the way, let's get to the #1 prospect in TSFBL:
TIER 1:
1. SF Stephen Jackson (Bulls) - 23 (+2)
Despite bringing back almost an identical roster to the team that went 38-44 a season ago, the Chicago Bulls had the league’s third highest increase in SRS this season. The primary reason for the jump was due to Stephen Jackson’s ascendance to superstardom. His efficiency skyrocketed, most evident by his increase in points per game despite averaging four fewer minutes. This is sadly Jackson’s final year of prospect eligibility, but that doesn’t mean he can’t continue to improve as he approaches the prime of his career. Watch out, TSFBL.
Development Score: 7
2. SG Kobe Bryant (Clippers) - 23 (-1)
After claiming the #1 spot in last year’s rankings, Bryant falls down a peg in this year’s rankings while remaining in the top tier. The regular season Clippers posed more questions than they answered after the Finals run in 2000, and Kobe wasn’t immune to the skepticism. It was the most turnover-prone we’ve ever seen Bryant, and his scoring went down as well. In the playoffs, we were able to see Kobe at his best in taking the Clippers to the brink of a championship for the second consecutive season. The rivalry between he and Jackson will continue for years to come, as they jockey for the title of best wing in the league.
Development Score: 5
TIER 2:
3. SF Ron Artest (Rockets) - 22 (+1)
For much of the season, Artest looked to have had the entire Rockets franchise strapped to his back on the road to the playoffs. While the team eventually ran out of gas and finished 12-30 down the stretch, the first 40 games were a sign that this team is not going to be out of the playoff picture for much longer if Artest is still in the fold. He finished top five in the league in scoring and displayed every bit of the defensive prowess he was projected as a prospect. With one year left on his rookie contract, the time is nearing for the Rockets to pivot into trying to build a contender around one of the league’s best young players.
Development Score: 8
TIER 3:
4. SG Dwyane Wade (76ers) - 23 (+1)
There’s no doubt the superstar trajectory of Wade hinges on his ability to develop a three-point shot. As a sophomore, his volume from behind the arc went down, but he was able to increase his proficiency from 22.1 to 26.4 percent. As a team, the 76ers were one of the league’s big surprises this season, pushed by their young core all the way to the Conference Finals. They’ll face big expectations next season, and their hopes of a championship down the line are reliant on Wade developing into the franchise’s superstar.
Development Score: 5
5. SF Shawn Marion (76ers) - 23 (+2)
On a roster with the past three #1 overall picks in tow, Marion has arguably made himself the most indispensable player. He’s maintained solid efficiency as a 20 points per game scorer at both forward positions, and he’s capable of guarding just about anybody in the league on a given night.
Development Score: 6
TIER 4:
6. SG Michael Redd (Nuggets) - 22 (NEW)
Redd’s explosion into a 30 points per game scorer on good efficiency was one of the league’s most shocking developments this season. The Nuggets traded away many futures firsts to bank on the current core, and needed such a development to have any hope that the gamble might pay off.
Development Score: 9
7. PG Baron Davis (Nets) - 22 (-1)
After a season where the Nets finally showed signs of competency, it’s time to look at the rebuilding core in a macro lens. Davis, as the head of a snake, projects to be one of the top point guards in the league, but the jury is still out on whether he’s the guy to bring the Nets into an era of contention or a complementary piece.
Development Score: 4
8. C Pau Gasol (Raptors) - 22 (--)
After just two seasons, it sure seems like Gasol has already ascended as the second-best center in the league. Unfortunately, the supporting cast around him just isn’t strong enough, and the organization hasn’t done much in the way of improving it.
Development Score: 6
TIER 5:
9. PF Elton Brand (Pacers) - 22 (--)
Last year, the question was (perhaps unfairly) posed of whether Brand had much room to grow as a prospect. In his third season, it appears that some of the concern of Brand already being a finish product have borne out. Still, a 20/10 big with solid defensive fundamentals can play for just about any team.
Development Score: 4
10. SF Rashard Lewis (Bucks) - 22 (NEW)
Lewis shut down all extension talks last offseason to bet on himself, and he appears to have made a lot of money in doing so. If the Bucks can’t afford to keep him in the summer, it’ll be interesting to see Rashard on a team where he has more offensive freedom.
Development Score: 7
Honorable Mention: (also in Tier 5 but outside of the top 10)
Names to Watch: (must be 22 or younger)
Graduates:
