2004 Draft Lottery

The 2004 Draft Lottery is due to begin shortly, and picks 1-13 will be revealed in short order! Feel free to follow along. Some housekeeping:

Default Odds: tsfbl.proboards.com/thread/2801/default-lottery-odds

Tiebreakers:
SuperSonics over Magic over Spurs
Mavericks over Pacers over Hornets
76ers over Bulls
Grizzlies over Nets

Ok?

The 13th pick in the 2004 Rookie Draft belongs to:



The Denver Nuggets, by way of the Toronto Raptors!

(95.18% chance of landing in this spot)

The Raptors' previous management traded this pick away before the start of the season in exchange for Jamaal Magloire. The Nuggets' will see their name called again tonight with the hopes of building for a brighter future.

They can only hope 13 is as good as Magloire

The 12th pick in the 2004 Rookie Draft belongs to:



The Boston Celtics!

(88.25% chance of landing in this spot)

The Celtics brought in aging stars Kenny Anderson and Alonzo Mourning in an attempt to make their first playoff push in years, but ended up falling short. Pick 12 will give them the opportunity to add a piece with the hopes of finally getting over the hump.

The 11th pick in the 2004 Rookie Draft belongs to:



The Denver Nuggets!

(79.54% chance of landing in this spot)

The Nuggets had roughly a 14% chance of landing at least one top-four pick, but fell short with both attempts.

The 10th pick in the 2004 Rookie Draft belongs to:



The Cleveland Cavaliers!

(67.59% chance of landing in this spot)

Two years removed from winning a championship, the Cavaliers' shocking fall into the lottery caught the entire league off guard. Having dealt many of their key players away during the season, they'll have to start over with the tenth overall pick.

The 9th pick in the 2004 Rookie Draft belongs to:



The Utah Jazz!

(52.05% chance of landing in this spot)

The Jazz's pick falls in the lottery for the fourth season in a row, but it will only be the second time they've made the pick. Luckily, the first one was LeBron James, and if they do half as good on this pick as they did in 2002, they'll get a great player.

The 8th pick in the 2004 Rookie Draft belongs to:



The Houston Rockets, by way of the San Antonio Spurs!

(31.52% chance of landing in this spot)

The Rockets procured this pick from the Spurs thanks to swap rights stemming from the Michael Finley trade. The Spurs will drop back to #14 overall, but will breathe a sigh of belief knowing they didn't lose out on a top four pick.

The 7th pick in the 2004 Rookie Draft belongs to:



The Sacramento Kings!

(16.49% chance of landing in this spot)

I failed to mention last post that we had a jump, and now we have two more! The Atlanta Hawks, Orlando Magic, and Seattle SuperSonics have all jumped to the top four, meaning there's just one slot left.

The 6th pick in the 2004 Rookie Draft belongs to:



The Golden State Warriors!

(19.78% chance of landing in this spot)

The Warriors finished with the second-worst record in the league this season, but will fall all the way down to six. This means the Miami Heat have rounded out the top four, leaving no suspense for pick 5.....

The 5th pick in the 2004 Rookie Draft belongs to:



The Phoenix Suns, by way of the Washington Wizards!

(47.62% chance of landing in this spot)

The Suns traded away a championship core (discovered in Cleveland, not Phoenix), and this was the crown jewel of the return. It's not the result they were looking for tonight, but a top five pick should still go a long way in their efforts to craft a contender around Carmelo Anthony. We know the top four, but we don't know the order, so stay tuned!

The 4th pick in the 2004 Rookie Draft belongs to:



The Orlando Magic, by way of the Atlanta Hawks!

(7.26% chance of landing in this spot)

One wrinkle to throw into the top four is that the Hawks had the rights to swap with the Magic thanks to the Chauncey Billups trade. This worked out about as well as you'd hope for Orlando, who'll still pick in the top four after a nightmare season despite the pick swap.

The 3rd pick in the 2004 Rookie Draft belongs to:



The Atlanta Hawks, by way of the Orlando Magic!

(9.46% chance of landing in this spot)

The Hawks were one of the league's biggest over-achievers relative to the talent on their roster this season, and will pick in the top three after netting one pick from their swap with the Magic.

The 2nd pick in the 2004 Rookie Draft belongs to:



The Miami Heat!

(13.48% chance of landing in this spot)

The Heat selected fourth overall last season, but could not improve their standing in the league. After back-to-back rough seasons, there will be a lot of pressure to parlay this pick into a turnaround.

And that means...

The 1st pick in the 2004 Rookie Draft belongs to:



The Seattle SuperSonics!

(9.05% chance of landing in this spot)

A nightmare season in Seattle saw a pairing of Antoine Walker and Grant Hill fail to win enough games to even make the playoffs in the lackluster Western Conference. They will now add the #1 overall pick into the fold, and will have real expectations to turn the situation around immediately. Congratulations to the SuperSonics!

13. Denver Nuggets (from Raptors)
12. Boston Celtics
11. Denver Nuggets
10. Cleveland Cavaliers
9. Utah Jazz
8. Houston Rockets (from Spurs)
7. Sacramento Kings
6. Golden State Warriors
5. Phoenix Suns (from Wizards)
4. Orlando Magic (from Hawks)
3. Atlanta Hawks (from Magic)
2. Miami Heat
1. Seattle SuperSonics